Empowering the crowd: feasible strategies for epidemic management in high-density informal settlements. The case of COVID-19 in Northwest Syria
dc.contributor.author
Pascual-García, Alberto
dc.contributor.author
Klein, Jordan D.
dc.contributor.author
Villers, Jennifer
dc.contributor.author
Campillo-Funollet, Eduard
dc.contributor.author
Sarkis, Chamsy
dc.date.accessioned
2021-09-06T12:45:22Z
dc.date.available
2021-09-06T02:45:21Z
dc.date.available
2021-09-06T12:45:22Z
dc.date.issued
2021-01
dc.identifier.other
10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004656
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/504178
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000504178
dc.description.abstract
More than 1 billion people live in informal settlements worldwide, where precarious living conditions pose unique challenges to managing a COVID-19 outbreak. Taking Northwest Syria as a case study, we simulated an outbreak in high-density informal Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps using a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model. Expanding on previous studies, taking social conditions and population health/structure into account, we modelled several interventions feasible in these settings: moderate self-distancing, self-isolation of symptomatic cases and protection of the most vulnerable in 'safety zones'. We considered complementary measures to these interventions that can be implemented autonomously by these communities, such as buffer zones, health checks and carers for isolated individuals, quantifying their impact on the micro-dynamics of disease transmission. All interventions significantly reduce outbreak probability and some of them reduce mortality when an outbreak does occur. Self-distancing reduces mortality by up to 35% if contacts are reduced by 50%. A reduction in mortality by up to 18% can be achieved by providing one self-isolation tent per eight people. Protecting the most vulnerable in a safety zone reduces the outbreak probability in the vulnerable population and has synergistic effects with the other interventions. Our model predicts that a combination of all simulated interventions may reduce mortality by more than 90% and delay an outbreak's peak by almost 2 months. Our results highlight the potential for non-medical interventions to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. Similar measures may be applicable to controlling COVID-19 in other informal settlements, particularly IDP camps in conflict regions, around the world.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
BMJ
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
dc.subject
epidemiology
en_US
dc.subject
COVID-19
en_US
dc.subject
mathematical modelling
en_US
dc.subject
control strategies
en_US
dc.title
Empowering the crowd: feasible strategies for epidemic management in high-density informal settlements. The case of COVID-19 in Northwest Syria
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
BMJ Global Health
ethz.journal.volume
6
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
8
en_US
ethz.pages.start
e004656
en_US
ethz.size
14 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
London
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02720 - Institut für Integrative Biologie / Institute of Integrative Biology
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02720 - Institut für Integrative Biologie / Institute of Integrative Biology::03584 - Bonhoeffer, Sebastian / Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02720 - Institut für Integrative Biologie / Institute of Integrative Biology::03584 - Bonhoeffer, Sebastian / Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
ethz.date.deposited
2021-09-06T02:45:45Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2021-09-06T12:45:28Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T14:38:31Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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