The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries

Abstract

Data for low- and middle- income countries (LMICs) are used to investigate the effect of the demographic transition on economic growth at sub-national level. We introduce a detailed classification of demographic window phases, determine how these phases are distributed among and within LMICs, and analyze the relationship between the demographic window of opportunity (DWO) and economic growth for 1921 urban and rural areas of sub-national regions within 91 LMICs. Many areas in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have entered the window, but most of Sub-Saharan Africa is still in the traditional or pre-window phase. Our analyses reveal higher growth rates in areas passing through the DWO. Positive growth effects are particularly strong in rural and more educated regions and in countries with lower levels of corruption. Policy measures aimed at effectively using the DW for achieving growth should combine investments in education and rural development with better governance.