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dc.contributor.author
Alser, Mohammed
dc.contributor.author
Kim, Jeremie S.
dc.contributor.author
Almadhoun Alserr, Nour
dc.contributor.author
Tell, Stefan W.
dc.contributor.author
Mutlu, Onur
dc.date.accessioned
2022-08-09T07:04:43Z
dc.date.available
2022-07-14T03:08:18Z
dc.date.available
2022-08-09T07:04:43Z
dc.date.issued
2022-06-17
dc.identifier.issn
2296-2565
dc.identifier.other
10.3389/fpubh.2022.877621
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/558045
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000558045
dc.description.abstract
Early detection and isolation of COVID-19 patients are essential for successful implementation of mitigation strategies and eventually curbing the disease spread. With a limited number of daily COVID-19 tests performed in every country, simulating the COVID-19 spread along with the potential effect of each mitigation strategy currently remains one of the most effective ways in managing the healthcare system and guiding policy-makers. We introduce COVIDHunter, a flexible and accurate COVID-19 outbreak simulation model that evaluates the current mitigation measures that are applied to a region, predicts COVID-19 statistics (the daily number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths), and provides suggestions on what strength the upcoming mitigation measure should be. The key idea of COVIDHunter is to quantify the spread of COVID-19 in a geographical region by simulating the average number of new infections caused by an infected person considering the effect of external factors, such as environmental conditions (e.g., climate, temperature, humidity), different variants of concern, vaccination rate, and mitigation measures. Using Switzerland as a case study, COVIDHunter estimates that we are experiencing a deadly new wave that will peak on 26 January 2022, which is very similar in numbers to the wave we had in February 2020. The policy-makers have only one choice that is to increase the strength of the currently applied mitigation measures for 30 days. Unlike existing models, the COVIDHunter model accurately monitors and predicts the daily number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to COVID-19. Our model is flexible to configure and simple to modify for modeling different scenarios under different environmental conditions and mitigation measures. We release the source code of the COVIDHunter implementation at https://github.com/CMU-SAFARI/COVIDHunter and show how to flexibly configure our model for any scenario and easily extend it for different measures and conditions than we account for.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Frontiers
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
COVIDHunter: COVID-19 Pandemic Wave Prediction and Mitigation via Seasonality Aware Modeling
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Frontiers in Public Health
ethz.journal.volume
10
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Front. Public Health
ethz.pages.start
877621
en_US
ethz.size
14 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Lausanne
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2022-07-14T03:08:24Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2022-08-09T07:04:51Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-08-09T07:04:51Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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