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dc.contributor.author
Reis, Saulo D.S.
dc.contributor.author
Böttcher, Lucas
dc.contributor.author
da C. Nogueira, João P.
dc.contributor.author
Sousa, Geziel S.
dc.contributor.author
Lima Neto, Antonio S.
dc.contributor.author
Herrmann, Hans J.
dc.contributor.author
Andrade, José S.
dc.date.accessioned
2022-08-09T07:11:38Z
dc.date.available
2022-07-28T03:31:17Z
dc.date.available
2022-08-09T07:11:38Z
dc.date.issued
2022-07-07
dc.identifier.issn
2296-424X
dc.identifier.other
10.3389/fphy.2022.923099
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/560525
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000560525
dc.description.abstract
Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from 2011 to 2016, we study the spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks to characterize epidemic and non-epidemic years. First, we identify regions that show a high incidence of dengue cases and mosquito larvae in different years and analyze their corresponding correlations. We find that the characteristic correlation length of the epidemic is at least of the order of the system size, suggesting that factors such as citizen mobility may play a significant role in driving the spatial spread of the disease. We also find that in epidemic years, spatial correlations are substantially higher with a distribution skewed towards large values than non-epidemic years. Inspired by this observation, we perform a mean-field estimation of the basic reproduction number and find that the estimated values agree well with the values reported for other regions in Brazil and other countries, pointing towards similar underlying spreading mechanisms. These findings provide insights into the spreading characteristics of dengue in densely populated areas and may be relevant for improving disease containment strategies.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Frontiers
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
dengue fever
en_US
dc.subject
Bayesian inference
en_US
dc.subject
disease spreading
en_US
dc.subject
mathematical modelling
en_US
dc.subject
data analysis
en_US
dc.title
Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Dengue Outbreaks
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Frontiers in Physics
ethz.journal.volume
10
en_US
ethz.pages.start
923099
en_US
ethz.size
11 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Lausanne
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2022-07-28T03:31:25Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2022-08-09T07:11:54Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-08-09T07:11:54Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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