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dc.contributor.author
Steinfeld, Daniel
dc.contributor.author
Sprenger, Michael
dc.contributor.author
Beyerle, Urs
dc.contributor.author
Pfahl, Stephan
dc.date.accessioned
2022-08-04T14:11:45Z
dc.date.available
2022-08-04T04:55:07Z
dc.date.available
2022-08-04T14:11:45Z
dc.date.issued
2022-08
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/ac81af
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/561766
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000561766
dc.description.abstract
Weather extremes are often associated with atmospheric blocking, but how the underlying physical processes leading to blocking respond to climate change is not yet fully understood. Here we track blocks as upper-level negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies and apply a Lagrangian analysis to 100 years of present-day (∼2000) and future (∼2100, under the RCP8.5 scenario) climate simulations restarted from the Community Earth System Model–Large Ensemble Project runs (CESM-LENS) to identify different physical processes and quantify how their relative importance changes in a warmer and more humid climate. The trajectories reveal two contrasting airstreams that both contribute to the formation and maintenance of blocking: latent heating in strongly ascending airstreams (moist processes) and quasi-adiabatic flow near the tropopause with weak radiative cooling (dry processes). Both are reproduced remarkably well when compared against ERA-Interim reanalysis, and their relative importance varies regionally and seasonally. The response of blocks to climate change is complex and differs regionally, with a general increase in the importance of moist processes due to stronger latent heating (+1 K in the median over the Northern Hemisphere) and a larger fraction (+15%) of strongly heated warm conveyor belt air masses, most pronounced over the storm tracks. Future blocks become larger (+7%) and their negative PV anomaly slightly intensifies (+0.8%). Using a Theil–Sen regression model, we propose that the increase in size and intensity is related to the increase in latent heating, resulting in stronger cross-isentropic transport of air with low PV into the blocking anticyclones. Our findings provide evidence that moist processes become more important for the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the midlatitudes, with the potential for larger and more intense blocks.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
IOP Publishing
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
atmospheric blocking
en_US
dc.subject
latent heating
en_US
dc.subject
moist and dry processes
en_US
dc.subject
air parcel trajectories
en_US
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.subject
extreme weather
en_US
dc.subject
ensemble climate simulations
en_US
dc.title
Response of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking to climate change
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2022-07-27
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
17
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
8
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
084020
en_US
ethz.size
12 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Effects of latent heat release on atmospheric blocking: process understanding, model evaluation and potential impacts of climate change
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03854 - Wernli, Johann Heinrich / Wernli, Johann Heinrich
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03854 - Wernli, Johann Heinrich / Wernli, Johann Heinrich
ethz.grant.agreementno
ETH-09 15-2
ethz.grant.fundername
ETHZ
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100003006
ethz.grant.program
ETH Grants
ethz.date.deposited
2022-08-04T04:56:25Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2022-08-04T14:11:53Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-08-04T14:11:53Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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