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dc.contributor.author
Austin, J.
dc.contributor.author
Shindell, Drew
dc.contributor.author
Beagley, Stephen R.
dc.contributor.author
Brühl, Christoph
dc.contributor.author
Dameris, Martin
dc.contributor.author
Manzini, Elisa
dc.contributor.author
Nagashima, Tatsuya
dc.contributor.author
Newman, Paul
dc.contributor.author
Pawson, Steven
dc.contributor.author
Pitari, Giovanni
dc.contributor.author
Rozanov, Eugene
dc.contributor.author
Schnadt, Christina
dc.contributor.author
Shepherd, Theodore G.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-09-03T13:58:21Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-10T10:17:25Z
dc.date.available
2018-10-26T14:02:03Z
dc.date.available
2019-09-03T13:58:21Z
dc.date.issued
2003
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7375
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7367
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/acp-3-1-2003
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/57487
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000057487
dc.description.abstract
In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the "cold pole problem", particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic. Further, interannual variability will tend to mask the signal for longer than in the Antarctic, delaying still further the date at which ozone recovery may be said to have started. Because of this inherent variability of the system, the decadal evolution of Arctic ozone will not necessarily be a direct response to external forcing.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus Publications
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/
dc.title
Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Generic
dc.date.published
2003-01-09
ethz.journal.title
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ethz.journal.volume
3
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Atmos. chem. phys.
ethz.pages.start
1
en_US
ethz.pages.end
27
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
004294181
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-10T10:19:48Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364fe83e5dc78973
ethz.ecitpid
pub:92020
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-12T22:28:07Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T05:48:36Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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