Third-Party Countries in Cyber Conflict: Understanding the Dynamics of Public Opinion Following Offensive Cyber Operations

Abstract

The transnational nature of cyberspace alters the role of third-party countries (TPCs) in international conflict. In the conventional environment, military operations are primarily confined to the boundaries of the combatants or a designated war zone. However, during cyber conflict, operations may occur on the digital infrastructure of states not otherwise involved in the dispute. Within the cybersecurity literature, little is said regarding the role of TPCs who, by virtue of interconnectivity, may find themselves involved in a conflict not of their own making. Consequently, we examine the political and diplomatic hazards inherent in cyber operations that involve these actors. Using a survey experiment fielded in the United Kingdom, we assess the impact of revelations of offensive cyber operations on a TPC population. We test whether prior authorization, existing alliances, and the nature of the target influence public opinion in TPCs following cyber operations conducted within their digital space. We find that while these individuals view these incidents negatively, prior authorization and the involvement of an ally mitigate negativity. Negativity, however. is less affected by target identity.