Vulnerability of rural livelihoods in North Vanuatu to climate and socioeconomic change

Abstract

Changes in the environment, society, and the economy can have a significant impact on the livelihoods of many people. In particular, climate change and increasing globalization pose challenges to societies worldwide. On the one hand, such changes can affect the exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity of individuals or entire societies, thus increasing their vulnerability to shocks (e.g., storms or sudden market price collapse) and stressors (e.g., droughts or high cost of education). On the other hand, such changes may themselves impact livelihoods directly by causing the aforementioned shocks and stressors. The example of North Vanuatu in the South Pacific illustrates the extent to which these changes and their consequences are already part of the reality of life for the region’s citizens. For example, local food production and income opportunities are already being affected by the impacts of climate change. In addition, North Vanuatu is transitioning from a subsistence economy to a market economy and is experiencing significant sociocultural change, with traditional values and norms changing or increasingly being replaced. These changes can also affect livelihoods by facilitating or impeding access to livelihood assets. However, the question of how these transformations in the environment, society, and economy lead to vulnerabilities and how this can affect the living conditions of society in general and food security in particular has not yet been fully clarified. Specifically, there are only few studies that use a concrete example (i.e., case studies) to show how local vulnerabilities relate to transregional or even global dynamics. However, this understanding is essential to empowering affected people to recognize changes and their causes and effects and to respond to them with adequate adaptation strategies. This desideratum leads to one of the central research questions of this dissertation: How are local vulnerabilities linked to global changes and their impacts? Answering this question requires an understanding of the causal relationships between cause, such as climate change, and local effect, such as crop failures. Previous studies have shown that local knowledge of affected populations is very useful, if not essential, in capturing the complex dynamics that shape vulnerabilities. Local knowledge enables an understanding of local conditions at a granularity that would otherwise be unattainable. In line with these findings, I place local knowledge and needs at the center of the analysis and address the role of local knowledge as a source of data for vulnerability research from a methodological perspective. I also place local knowledge centrally because this approach—according to the literature—ensures the relevance of the results and the implementability of the derived recommendations in the long term. Despite the importance of local knowledge, very little is known about how exactly local knowledge on vulnerability factors such as climate change, is generated, and, in particular, how local actors construct vulnerability-relevant causal relationships. These considerations lead to another central research question of this dissertation: How do the local people of North Vanuatu perceive change and its impact on their livelihoods, and what might influence this perception and associated knowledge? The dissertation is based on a transdisciplinary (td) research design that combines various qualitative research methods, including semi-structured interviews, participant observations, focus group discussions, expert interviews, and workshops. The td approach ensured an integrative study that links scientific findings and local knowledge, and puts local problem perception, problem identification, and problem structuring at the center of the analysis. The results of this dissertation shed light on how study participants in North Vanuatu relate potential vulnerabilities, particularly related to food insecurity, to environmental, social, and economic changes. According to study participants, crop failures and a decline in garden productivity are at least partially attributable to the impacts of climate change. While these disruptions in food production can have significant consequences, they allegedly do not threaten food security, at least for the present. However, the results also show how the attribution of perceived problems to external causes, such as climate change, is supplemented or even replaced by internal causal factors during and because of a participatory reflection process. For example, study participants explain that changes in crop rotation or planting times can also directly lead to lower harvests or increase the vulnerability of gardens to severe climatic conditions such as drought. The results also suggest that these changes in farming practices are based on economic decision-making logic aimed at maximizing income, which has only recently been made possible by economic developments and their implications, such as improved access to the market. However, new market access can also lead to an overall reduction in livelihood vulnerability by enabling the development of additional sources of income and food that complement existing (subsistence-oriented) strategies, thereby leading to a reduction in one-sided dependencies. The results illustrate the multidimensional character of vulnerability. On the one hand, vulnerability factors can emerge and have an impact at the local level; thus they are at least partially within the scope of action of those affected. On the other hand, vulnerability factors can be embedded in broader dynamics and processes that transcend multiple temporal and spatial scales, such as globalization. Therefore, such vulnerability factors can be influenced by those affected only with difficulty or not at all. Furthermore, the research process and results highlight the importance and usefulness of local knowledge to understand the complexities around vulnerabilities. In particular, local knowledge has helped link local problems, such as lower productivity of gardens, to possible causes, such as changes in farming practices. However, results also suggest that prevailing narratives, such as those about the impacts of climate change, can significantly influence the attribution of local problems to possible causes. On the one hand, these narratives are incorporated in local knowledge and thus influence the individual perceptions of local people. On the other hand, hegemonic narratives can generate social desirability. Furthermore, the findings point to the need to understand the complex individual circumstances of people to gain relevant insights for their adaptation to changing conditions when analyzing vulnerabilities. This is because prevailing norms and values can lead to different social groups having different scopes of action and opportunities to acquire the necessary capabilities and strategies to adapt to new conditions. Specifically, this has been illustrated by the social categories of gender and age. The dissertation contributes to empirical knowledge on factors that significantly influence livelihood vulnerability in North Vanuatu. In addition, the dissertation illustrates the challenges associated with incorporating local knowledge into vulnerability analyses and provides insights on how to overcome these challenges. At the same time, it highlights the necessity and usefulness of local knowledge for such analyses to develop relevant strategies that enable people to adapt their livelihoods to changing conditions.