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dc.contributor.author
Orlowsky, Boris
dc.contributor.author
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-06-25T15:36:19Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-10T11:42:12Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-25T15:36:19Z
dc.date.issued
2012
dc.identifier.issn
1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn
1607-7938
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hessd-9-13773-2012
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/59414
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000059414
dc.description.abstract
Recent years have seen a number of severe droughts in different regions around theworld, causing agricultural and economic losses, famines and migration. Despite theirdevastating consequences, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) of these eventslies within the range of internal climate variability, which we estimate from simulations5from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In terms ofdrought magnitude, regional trends of SPI over the last decades remain mostly in-conclusive in observations and CMIP simulations, although Soil Moisture Anoma-lies (SMAs) in CMIP5 simulations hint at increased drought in a few regions (e.g.the Mediterranean, Central America/Mexico, the Amazon, North-East Brazil and South Africa). Also for the future, projections of meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SMA)drought in CMIP5 display large uncertainties over all time frames, generally impedingtrend detection. Analogue analyses of the frequencies rather than magnitudes of fu-ture drought display, however, more robust signal-to-noise ratios with detectable trendstowards more frequent drought until the end of the 21st century in the Mediterranean, South Africa and Central America/Mexico. Other present-day hot spots are projected tobecome less drought-prone, or to display unsignificant changes in drought occurrence.A separation of different sources of uncertainty in drought projections reveals that forthe near term, internal climate variability is the dominant source, while the formulationof Global Climate Models (GCMs) generally becomes the dominant source of uncertainty by the end of the 21st century, especially for agricultural (soil moisture) drought.In comparison, the uncertainty in Green-House Gas (GHG) concentrations scenariosis negligible for most regions. These findings stand in contrast to respective analysesfor a heat wave indicator, for which GHG concentrations scenarios constitute the mainsource of uncertainty. Our results highlight the inherent difficulty of drought quantification and the uncertainty of drought projections. However, high uncertainty shouldnot be equated with low drought risk, since potential scenarios include large droughtincreases in key agricultural and ecosystem regions.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Elusive drought: uncertainty in observedtrends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2012-12-18
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
9
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. earth syst. sci.
ethz.pages.start
13773
en_US
ethz.pages.end
13803
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
001881462
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.relation.isPreviousVersionOf
10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-10T11:42:42Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp5936500f1644f72075
ethz.ecitpid
pub:94952
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-15T08:50:07Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2020-02-15T19:50:22Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Elusive%20drought:%20uncertainty%20in%20observedtrends%20and%20short-%20and%20long-term%20CMIP5%20projections&rft.jtitle=Hydrology%20and%20Earth%20System%20Sciences&rft.date=2012&rft.volume=9&rft.spage=13773&rft.epage=13803&rft.issn=1027-5606&1607-7938&rft.au=Orlowsky,%20Boris&Seneviratne,%20Sonia%20I.&rft.genre=article&
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