Fire Weather Compromises Large-scale Afforestation Scenarios

Abstract

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, the globally increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes will lead to more profound and frequent forest disturbances affecting the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. Here, we critically assess the forestation scenarios of five different Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) by quantifying the spatially explicit exposure of forestation scenarios to fire weather and a detailed overview of the modeled forest - climate change feedbacks. Few IAMs are currently accounting for such feedbacks. Consequently many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation potential of forestation in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we exemplify how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling forestation scenarios.