The R-word Index for Switzerland
dc.contributor.author
Iselin, David
dc.contributor.author
Siliverstovs, Boriss
dc.date.accessioned
2017-06-22T10:43:58Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-10T12:32:34Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-22T10:43:58Z
dc.date.issued
2012-06
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/61498
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-a-007319025
dc.description.abstract
In this study we construct the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. To the best of our knowledge, this has never been done before. We evaluate the extent to which the inclusion of the index contributes to more accurate forecasts of GDP growth compared with a benchmark autoregressive model. We perform our forecasting exercise using real-time vintages of GDP data, closely simulating flow of information in the past. We find that inclusion of the R-word index led to statistically significant improvement in forecast accuracy over the benchmark model. Largest improvements in forecast accuracy were observed in the period around the Great Recession.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subject
Real-time data
en_US
dc.subject
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
en_US
dc.subject
ECONOMETRICS AND ECONOMETRIC MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH)
en_US
dc.subject
REZESSION (WIRTSCHAFT, GELD UND WÄHRUNG)
en_US
dc.subject
Nowcasting
en_US
dc.subject
Switzerland
en_US
dc.subject
FORECASTING BASED ON STATISTICS (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS)
en_US
dc.subject
BRUTTONATIONALEINKOMMEN
en_US
dc.subject
SCHWEIZ (MITTELEUROPA). SCHWEIZERISCHE EIDGENOSSENSCHAFT
en_US
dc.subject
RECESSION (ECONOMY, MONEY AND CURRENCY)
en_US
dc.subject
SWITZERLAND (CENTRAL EUROPE). SWISS CONFEDERATION
en_US
dc.subject
ÖKONOMETRIE UND ÖKONOMETRISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH)
en_US
dc.subject
PROGNOSEN AUF STATISTISCHER BASIS (MATHEMATISCHE STATISTIK)
en_US
dc.subject
ECONOMIC GROWTH
en_US
dc.subject
WIRTSCHAFTSWACHSTUM
en_US
dc.subject
Recession
en_US
dc.title
The R-word Index for Switzerland
en_US
dc.type
Working Paper
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
dc.date.published
2012
ethz.journal.title
KOF Working Papers
ethz.journal.volume
304
en_US
ethz.size
16 p.
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
DDC - DDC::3 - Social sciences::330 - Economics
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
007319025
ethz.publication.place
Zürich
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-10T12:33:44Z
ethz.source
ECOL
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59366b27454e875094
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365035a514441883
ethz.ecolpid
eth:5721
ethz.ecitpid
pub:97960
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-06-22T10:44:00Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2020-02-15T05:56:44Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=The%20R-word%20Index%20for%20Switzerland&rft.jtitle=KOF%20Working%20Papers&rft.date=2012-06&rft.volume=304&rft.au=Iselin,%20David&Siliverstovs,%20Boriss&rft.genre=preprint&
Files in this item
Publication type
-
Working Paper [5332]