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dc.contributor.author
Smith, Christopher J.
dc.contributor.author
Al Khourdajie, Alaa
dc.contributor.author
Yang, Pu
dc.contributor.author
Folini, Doris
dc.date.accessioned
2023-09-04T09:58:05Z
dc.date.available
2023-09-02T03:15:17Z
dc.date.available
2023-09-04T08:13:34Z
dc.date.available
2023-09-04T09:58:05Z
dc.date.issued
2023-09
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/acedc6
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/629354
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000629354
dc.description.abstract
Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider climate uncertainty in their construction. We use a well-known cost-benefit integrated assessment model, the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, with its climate component replaced by the Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model (v2.1). The climate uncertainty in FaIR is sampled with an ensemble that is consistent with historically observed climate and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed ranges of key climate variables such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). By varying discounting assumptions, three scenarios are produced: a pathway similar to the 'optimal welfare' scenario of DICE that has similar warming outcomes to current policies, and pathways that limit warming to 'well-below' 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C with a short-term overshoot, aiming to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals. Climate uncertainty alone is responsible for a factor of five variation (5%-95% range) in the social cost of carbon (SCC) in the 1.5 degrees C overshoot scenario, with the spread in SCC increasing in relative terms with increasing stringency of climate target. CO2 emissions trajectories resulting from the optimal level of emissions abatement in all pathways are also sensitive to climate uncertainty, with 2050 emissions ranging from -12 to +14 GtCO(2) yr(-1) in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. ECS and the strength of present-day aerosol effective radiative forcing are strong determinants of SCC and mid-century CO2 emissions. This shows that narrowing climate uncertainty leads to more refined estimates for the social cost of carbon and provides more certainty about the optimal rate of emissions abatement. Including climate and climate uncertainty in integrated assessment model derived emissions scenarios would address a key missing feedback in scenario construction.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
IOP Publishing
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
uncertainty
en_US
dc.subject
mitigation
en_US
dc.subject
economics
en_US
dc.subject
climate
en_US
dc.title
Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2023-08-18
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
18
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
9
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
094024
en_US
ethz.size
10 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2023-09-02T03:15:20Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2023-09-04T09:58:07Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-03T03:09:39Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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