The Environmental Dimension: Attitude Formation and Voting in the Age of Anthropogenic Climate Change

Abstract

This dissertation studies drivers and barriers towards public acceptance of and demand for the massive political disruptions that are necessary to limit climate change to sustainable levels. Specifically, I focus on the interaction between the political system, public opinion and the natural system in explaining lacking support for stricter environmental policies. Paper 1 and 2 investigate the role of the environment for stated voting behaviour based on two survey experiments. Paper 1 investigates whether people know about the policy positions of their local candidates, and if not, which cues they use to infer them. We find that people do not use sociodemographic cues in a systematic manner but may use a 'like me'-heuristic where they evaluate candidates that are similar to themselves to also have policy positions similar to themselves. Paper 2 then analyses whether people care about candidates' environmental policy positions when deciding who to vote for in elections with open list proportional representation. In theory, voters can choose candidates that perfectly fit their own policy positions, but only if they have the necessary level of information. Using a survey experiment that very closely mirrors real ballots in Swiss elections, we find that when voters gain information about candidates' policy position, spatial proximity voting increases, and preferences for descriptive representation decrease for age and gender cues but not location. Paper 3 and 4 look at one specific channel through which the natural environment can potentially shape environmental and political attitudes: the experience of extreme weather. With climate change leading to more frequent and more severe extreme weather (events), the direct experience of these may be one driver of increased support for stricter climate policies. Paper 3 first investigates which objective measures of extreme weather people subjectively perceive as such. It finds generally low correlations between subjective and objective measures, stressing the need for more research on the perceptions of the general population. Paper 4 stresses why the question of what people perceive as extreme weather is highly consequential - we show that depending on the operationalisation of extreme weather, effects on perception, attitudes and policy preferences can be negative, null, or positive. Over a wide range of plausible operationalisations, we find robust null effects, meaning that the direct experience of extreme weather is not a driver of demand for stricter climate policies in Switzerland. Lastly, Paper 5 looks at the potential impact of the political system itself on environmental pollution. For the case of Vietnam, we investigate the impact of political business cycles on environmental pollution, leading to the emergence of environmental political business cycles. Both electoral and career incentive structures of politicians lead to significant increases in air pollution before politically sensitive moments in the review cycle. This paper illustrates another potential source of pressure on the environment, namely the institutional design of the political system itself. Put together, this dissertation shows that providing voters with information on candidates' policy positions is one promising way of bringing voters' political behaviour on environmental issues in line with their environmental attitudes. The direct experience of extreme weather on the other hand is very likely not a driver of public demand for stricter climate policies. Lastly, the political system itself also plays a role in explaining environmental quality.