A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use
dc.contributor.author
Liu, Junguo
dc.contributor.author
Folberth, Christian
dc.contributor.author
Yang, Hong
dc.contributor.author
Röckström, Johan
dc.contributor.author
Abbaspour, Karim C.
dc.contributor.author
Zehnder, Alexander J.B.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-08-09T12:13:37Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-10T15:09:34Z
dc.date.available
2018-08-09T12:13:37Z
dc.date.issued
2013-02-27
dc.identifier.issn
1932-6203
dc.identifier.other
10.1371/journal.pone.0057750
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/64927
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000064927
dc.description.abstract
Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
PLOS
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
ethz.journal.title
PLoS ONE
ethz.journal.volume
8
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
2
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
PLoS ONE
ethz.pages.start
e57750
en_US
ethz.size
13 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.place
San Francisco, CA
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-10T15:12:09Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593650726606043818
ethz.ecitpid
pub:103264
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-18T18:37:06Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T05:38:13Z
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true
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