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dc.contributor.author
Abegg, Manon
dc.contributor.author
Clulow, Zeynep
dc.contributor.author
Nava, Lucrezia
dc.contributor.author
Reiner, David M.
dc.date.accessioned
2024-06-11T13:55:32Z
dc.date.available
2024-06-10T06:03:22Z
dc.date.available
2024-06-11T13:55:32Z
dc.date.issued
2024
dc.identifier.issn
2624-9553
dc.identifier.other
10.3389/fclim.2024.1331901
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/677328
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000677328
dc.description.abstract
Introduction: To achieve net-zero targets, it is essential to evaluate and model the costs and scalability of emerging carbon dioxide removal technologies like direct air capture with CO2 storage (DACCS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Yet such efforts are often impeded by varying assessments of the climate impact and potential contributions of these technologies. This study explores the future costs and scalability of DACCS and BECCS to advance net-zero goals. Methods: We analyze expert opinions on these technologies’ potential costs and deployment scales for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Data was collected from 34 experts, comprising 21 DACCS and 13 BECCS specialists. They provided 90% confidence interval estimates and ‘best estimates’ for future costs and deployment under two International Energy Agency (IEA) policy scenarios—Stated Policies (STEPS) and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE). Results: We find that BECCS costs start at a lower level but decrease more slowly, whereas DACCS costs decline more steeply from a higher initial cost. However, DACCS estimates varied significantly among experts, showing no convergence over time. Regarding potential scalability, both technologies are associated with substantially higher deployment under the NZE scenario. Yet the combined estimated capacity of DACCS and BECCS by 2050 is only about a quarter of the CO2 removals projected by the IEA for its NZE scenario (1.9 GtCO2). Discussion: This study provides valuable insights into the future of DACCS and BECCS technologies in Europe, especially since our experts expect that DACCS and BECCS costs will be even higher (and deployment scales lower) than those predicted by recent IEA tracking, opening future research directions.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Frontiers Media
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
learning curves
en_US
dc.subject
direct air capture
en_US
dc.subject
BECCS
en_US
dc.subject
negative emissions
en_US
dc.subject
model uncertainties
en_US
dc.subject
expert elicitations
en_US
dc.title
Expert insights into future trajectories: assessing cost reductions and scalability of carbon dioxide removal technologies
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2024-05-21
ethz.journal.title
Frontiers in Climate
ethz.journal.volume
6
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Front. Clim.
ethz.pages.start
1331901
en_US
ethz.size
25 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2024-06-10T06:03:29Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2024-06-11T13:55:33Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2025-02-14T11:06:58Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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