Subversion: From Covert Operations to Cyber Conflict

Abstract

In theory, subversion is the perfect weapon, yet in practice it often falters—and the same applies to cyber operations. This book explains why. Lennart Maschmeyer argues that subversion holds great promise as a cheap, easy, and yet effective alternative to war because of its distinct mechanism of action: secretly exploiting and manipulating adversary systems to undermine them and turn them against the adversary. In practice, however, subversion often falls short because this mechanism involves a set of underappreciated operational challenges that confront actors with a trilemma between speed, intensity, and control. Consequently, in most circumstances subversion is either too slow, too weak, or too volatile to produce strategic value. Subversion presents new and original evidence to support this theory from two detailed case studies that examine how the rise of information technology has changed this quality. The first case discusses the Soviet KGB’s use of illegal agents to crush the Prague Spring in Czechoslovakia from the late 1960s to the early 1970s. The second case examines Russia’s use of traditional subversion and cyber operations against Ukraine since 2014, both in its “hybrid war” strategy short of war prior to the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and since the latter. Contrary to prevailing expectations of revolutionary change in conflict short of war, findings from these studies demonstrate that traditional subversion likely remains both more versatile and more effective than cyber operations.