Printing homes: Unit cost estimation for additive manufacturing in construction

Abstract

Applying Additive Manufacturing (AM) methodologies, such as 3D printing of concrete, might provide a mechanism to revolutionize the construction sector. However, the ambiguous nature of unit economics has deterred its more extensive integration. As such, this study first presents a deterministic model for estimating direct and indirect costs in AM and then advances a stochastic unit cost model by integrating uncertainty ranges. Using (Monte Carlo) Simulation Decomposition, this model is analyzed regarding probabilistic scenarios, the sensitivity of input factors, and uncertainty effects. The results confirm the existence of economies of scale and highlight AM’s potential for construction across a diverse range of scenarios. Managers, researchers, investors, and policymakers alike can use this model to interactively navigate the complexities of AM in the construction industry to inform decisions and drive technology development. As AM technology advances, the models can be iteratively refined and expanded, eventually improving unit economics, productivity, and profitability. Future research can then leverage such models to explore AM’s potential impact in construction, infrastructure, and housing projects.