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dc.contributor.author
Jones, Miranda C.
dc.contributor.author
Dye, Stephen R.
dc.contributor.author
Fernandes, Jose A.
dc.contributor.author
Frölicher, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.author
Pinnegar, John K.
dc.contributor.author
Warren, Rachel
dc.contributor.author
Cheung, William W.L.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-08-16T12:28:00Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-10T23:34:14Z
dc.date.available
2018-08-16T12:28:00Z
dc.date.issued
2013-01-22
dc.identifier.issn
1932-6203
dc.identifier.other
10.1371/journal.pone.0054216
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/74127
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000074127
dc.description.abstract
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Public Library of Science
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
ethz.journal.title
PLoS ONE
ethz.journal.volume
8
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
PLoS ONE
ethz.pages.start
e54216
en_US
ethz.size
13 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
006206116
ethz.publication.place
San Francisco, CA
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-10T23:35:08Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp5936512a0f06c63583
ethz.ecitpid
pub:117246
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-12T18:04:25Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T01:18:36Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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