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dc.contributor.author
Künsch, Hans Rudolf
dc.contributor.author
Sigrist, Fabio
dc.contributor.author
Stahel, Werner A.
dc.date.accessioned
2017-06-11T02:22:32Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T02:22:32Z
dc.date.issued
2013
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/77227
dc.description.abstract
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are capable of producing predictive fields at spatially and temporally high frequencies. They provide however only point forecasts, or in the case of ensemble forecasts,they are typically underdispersed. Statistical postprocessing serves to overcome these shortcomings. We present here a method which is able to take the space-time correlations of prediction errors from the NWP into account. For this we use a stochastic advection-diffusion partial differential equation (SPDE) whose parameters have a physical interpretation. We derive computationally efficient spectral methods to fit such a model on a dense grid, based on possibly censored and noisy observations of the solution at some grid points. The proposed model is applied to precipitation forecasts for northern Switzerland. Our postprocessed forecasts outperform the raw NWP predictions and they quantify prediction uncertainty.
dc.language.iso
en
dc.publisher
JSM
dc.subject
Space-time models
dc.subject
Stochastic partial differential equations
dc.subject
Numerical weather prediction
dc.subject
Hierarchical Bayes methods
dc.subject
Statistical postprocessing
dc.title
Statistical Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Predictions Using a Stochastic Advection-Diffusion Model
dc.type
Presentation
ethz.event
JSM2013
ethz.event.location
Montréal, Canada
ethz.event.date
August 3-8, 2013
ethz.notes
Lecture hold on August 7, 2013 from 2:00 P.M. to 3:50 P.M..
ethz.publication.place
Montreal, Canada
ethz.publication.status
published
ethz.leitzahl
03217 - Künsch, Hans Rudolf
ethz.leitzahl.certified
03217 - Künsch, Hans Rudolf
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T02:24:55Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593651661a57536843
ethz.ecitpid
pub:121839
ethz.eth
yes
ethz.availability
Metadata only
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-14T20:05:04Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2017-07-14T20:05:04Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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