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dc.contributor.author
Madlener, R.
dc.contributor.author
Kumbaroglu, G.
dc.contributor.author
Ediger, V.
dc.date.accessioned
2017-06-11T10:10:40Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T10:10:40Z
dc.date.issued
2004-02
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/85910
dc.description.abstract
This paper studies energy conversion technology adoption in the electricity supply sector from the perspective of irreversible investments under uncertainty, and with a particular interest in environmental sustainability. We develop a dynamic technology adoption model that is firmly rooted in economic theory and that takes important determinants of optimal investment in available technologies (e.g. life-cycle capital and operation cost) explicitly into account. Uncertainty is introduced for the demand for peak-load capacity, unit generation costs, and for the average electricity price. We test the model empirically by applying it to data for the Turkish power supply industry. The model-guided optimal investment results based on net present value considerations exhibit significant deviations from the actual investment outcome. We find that the increased adoption of natural-gas-fired power generation technologies in Turkey in recent years, while contributing to environmental sustainability, has had doubtful merits from an investor’s perspective.
dc.language.iso
en
dc.publisher
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, CEPE - Centre for Energy Policy and Economics
dc.title
Modeling Technology Adoption as an Irreversible Investment Under Uncertainty
dc.type
Working Paper
ethz.title.subtitle
The Case of the Turkish Electricity Supply Industry
ethz.journal.title
CEPE Working Paper
ethz.journal.volume
30
ethz.size
32p.
ethz.notes
.
ethz.publication.place
Zurich
ethz.publication.status
published
ethz.leitzahl
03533 - Jochem, Eberhard
ethz.leitzahl.certified
03533 - Jochem, Eberhard
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T10:13:52Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365209cb2f511506
ethz.ecitpid
pub:135360
ethz.eth
yes
ethz.availability
Metadata only
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-15T08:27:15Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-02T15:01:31Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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