The impact of extreme weather events on urban mobility in Switzerland
Bösch, Patrick M.
- Working Paper
One expected effect of climate change will be an increase in intra- and inter-seasonal weather variations, including substantially more frequent and more severe weather extremes in several parts of Europe. A substantial part of the short term total economic costs (and hence indirect costs) caused by extreme weather events occur through an impaired transport system. This paper applies an innovative model-based analysis of the short and longer term impact of climate change, taking the perspective of disruptions of the urban transport system. Three different models, suitable to capture different aspects of the problem at hand, were combined. An agent-based micro simulation model (MatSim), a system-dynamics model of the Swiss transport market (MOVEET) and a general equilibrium model of the Swiss economy (EDIP). The final goal of this approach is to estimate the costs of disruptive events for climate change, as well as to estimate the impact of weather information for travellers. This paper contains the preliminary results of a test-case of the model linkage, using extreme precipitation for Zurich and Switzerland as a case-study. The full model linkage was run, but the results are not entirely conclusive. We find that the cost of extreme precipitation is relevant and increasing in the future, but can only draw preliminary results on the total direct and indirect costs of extreme precipitation in the future. These results will become available at the completion of the ToPDad project, which is the main source of financing for this study Show more
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Journal / seriesArbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung
SubjectClimate change; Extreme precipitation; Microsimulation; General equilibrium modelling
Organisational unit03521 - Axhausen, Kay W.
02226 - NSL - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft / NSL - Network City and Landscape
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