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dc.contributor.author
Raupach, Michael R.
dc.contributor.author
Gloor, M.
dc.contributor.author
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
dc.contributor.author
Canadell, Josep G.
dc.contributor.author
Frölicher, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.author
Gasser, Thomas
dc.contributor.author
Houghton, R.A.
dc.contributor.author
Le Quéré, Corinne
dc.contributor.author
Trudinger, Catherine M.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-09-26T12:21:48Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T11:40:09Z
dc.date.available
2018-09-26T12:21:48Z
dc.date.issued
2014
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/87544
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000087544
dc.description.abstract
Through 1959–2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO2 sink rate (kS), the combined land–ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations that kS declined over 1959–2012 by a factor of about 1 / 3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2. Using a carbon–climate model, we attribute the decline in kS to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO2 emissions growth (~ 35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (~ 25%), sink responses to climate change (~ 20%), and nonlinear responses to increasing CO2, mainly oceanic (~ 20%). The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in kS will occur under all plausible CO2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon–climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2015-03-02
ethz.journal.title
Biogeosciences
ethz.journal.volume
11
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
13
en_US
ethz.pages.start
3453
en_US
ethz.pages.end
3475
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Operational Global Carbon Observing System
en_US
ethz.grant
Anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake by the Southern Ocean
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
006289717
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
ethz.grant.agreementno
283080
ethz.grant.agreementno
142573
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.fundername
SNF
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100001711
ethz.grant.program
FP7
ethz.grant.program
Ambizione
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T11:40:14Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365228a400416497
ethz.ecitpid
pub:137763
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T16:00:06Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-01-02T14:14:55Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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