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dc.contributor.author
Sedláček, Jan
dc.contributor.author
Knutti, Reto
dc.date.accessioned
2018-03-29T08:21:47Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T11:55:05Z
dc.date.available
2018-03-29T08:21:47Z
dc.date.issued
2014
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044008
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/88009
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000088009
dc.description.abstract
Fresh water is a critical resource on Earth, yet projections of changes in the water cycle resulting from anthropogenic warming are challenging. It is important to not only know the best estimate of change, but also how robust these projections are, where changes occur, which variables will change, and how many people are affected by it. Here we synthesize the changes in the water cycle, based on results of the latest climate model intercomparison (CMIP5). Several variables of the water cycle, such as evaporation and relative humidity, show robust changes over more than 50% of the land area already with an anthropogenic global warming of 1 °C. A warming of 2 °C shows more than half of the world's population to be directly affected by robust local changes in the water cycle, and everybody experiences a robust change in at least one variable of the water cycle. While the physical changes are widespread, the affected people are concentrated in a few hot-spots mainly in Asia and Central Africa. The occurrence of these hot-spots is driven by population density, as well as by the early emergence of the anthropogenic signal from variability in these areas. Large uncertainties remain in projections of soil moisture and runoff changes.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject
Hydrological cycle
en_US
dc.subject
Future changes
en_US
dc.subject
Impact on society
en_US
dc.title
Half of the world's population experience robust changes in the water cycle for a 2 °C warmer world
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
9
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
4
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. res. lett.
ethz.pages.start
044008
en_US
ethz.size
8 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
005253059
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T11:55:36Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp5936523334d2920115
ethz.ecitpid
pub:138472
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-26T03:40:42Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T17:15:10Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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