Predicting above normal wildfire activity in southern Europe as a function of meteorological drought
Rego, Francisco C.
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
- Journal Article
Rights / licenseCreative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
Wildfires are a recurrent feature of ecosystems in southern Europe, regularly causing large ecological and socio-economic damages. For efficient management of this hazard, long lead time forecasts could be valuable tools. Using logistic regression, we show that the probability of above normal summer wildfire activity in the 1985–2010 time period can be forecasted as a function of meteorological drought with significant predictability (p <0.05) several months in advance. The results show that long lead time forecasts of this natural hazard are feasible in southern Europe, which could potentially aid decision-makers in the design of strategies for forest management Show more
Journal / seriesEnvironmental Research Letters
Pages / Article No.
PublisherInstitute of Physics
SubjectWildfire; Drought; Climate impact; Forecast
Organisational unit03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia
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