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dc.contributor.author
Khan, Adnan
dc.contributor.author
Hassan, Muhammad
dc.contributor.author
Imran, Mudassar
dc.date.accessioned
2019-10-03T11:37:17Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T13:27:40Z
dc.date.available
2019-10-03T11:37:17Z
dc.date.issued
2014
dc.identifier.issn
2049-9957
dc.identifier.other
10.1186/2049-9957-3-12
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/91753
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000091753
dc.description.abstract
Background Dengue, an infectious tropical disease, has recently emerged as one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world. We perform a retrospective analysis of the 2011 dengue fever epidemic in Pakistan in order to assess the transmissibility of the disease. We obtain estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 from epidemic data using different methodologies applied to different epidemic models in order to evaluate the robustness of our estimate. Results We first estimate model parameters by fitting a deterministic ODE vector-host model for the transmission dynamics of single-strain dengue to the epidemic data, using both a basic ordinary least squares (OLS) as well as a generalized least squares (GLS) scheme. Moreover, we perform the same analysis for a direct-transmission ODE model, thereby allowing us to compare our results across different models. In addition, we formulate a direct-transmission stochastic model for the transmission dynamics of dengue and obtain parameter estimates for the stochastic model using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In each of the cases we have considered, the estimate for the basic reproduction number R0 is initially greater than unity leading to an epidemic outbreak. However, control measures implemented several weeks after the initial outbreak successfully reduce R0 to less than unity, thus resulting in disease elimination. Furthermore, it is observed that there is strong agreement in our estimates for the pre-control value of R0, both across different methodologies as well across different models. However, there are also significant differences between our estimates for the post-control value of the basic reproduction number across the two different models. Conclusion In conclusion, we have obtained robust estimates for the value of the basic reproduction number R0 associated with the 2011 dengue fever epidemic before the implementation of public health control measures. Furthermore, we have shown that there is close agreement between our estimates for the post-control value of R0 across the different methodologies. Nevertheless, there are also significant differences between the estimates for the post-control value of R0 across the two different models.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
BioMed Central
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
dc.subject
Epidemiology
en_US
dc.subject
Dengue fever
en_US
dc.subject
Statistical inference
en_US
dc.subject
Epidemiology
en_US
dc.subject
Dengue fever
en_US
dc.subject
Statistical inference
en_US
dc.subject
Stochastic model
en_US
dc.subject
Markov chain Monte Carlo
en_US
dc.title
Estimating the basic reproduction number for single-strain dengue fever epidemics
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic
dc.date.published
2014-04-07
ethz.journal.title
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
ethz.journal.volume
3
en_US
ethz.pages.start
12
en_US
ethz.size
17 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.place
London
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T13:28:09Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp5936527a4f03076052
ethz.ecitpid
pub:144423
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-15T05:34:24Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-10-03T11:37:28Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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