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dc.contributor.author
Sitch, Stephen
dc.contributor.author
Friedlingstein, Pierre
dc.contributor.author
Gruber, Nicolas
dc.contributor.author
Jones, Steve D.
dc.contributor.author
Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo
dc.contributor.author
Ahlström, Anders
dc.contributor.author
Doney, Scott C.
dc.contributor.author
Graven, Heather D.
dc.contributor.author
Heinze, Christoph
dc.contributor.author
Huntingford, Chris
dc.contributor.author
Levis, Samuel
dc.contributor.author
Levy, Peter
dc.contributor.author
Lomas, Mark
dc.contributor.author
Poulter, Benjamin
dc.contributor.author
Viovy, Nicolas
dc.contributor.author
Zaehle, Sönke
dc.contributor.author
Zeng, Ning
dc.contributor.author
Arneth, Almuth
dc.contributor.author
Bonan, Gordon
dc.contributor.author
Bopp, Laurent
dc.contributor.author
Canadell, Josep G.
dc.contributor.author
Chevallier, Frédéric
dc.contributor.author
Ciais, Philippe
dc.contributor.author
Ellis, Richard
dc.contributor.author
Gloor; Manuel
dc.contributor.author
Peylin, Philippe
dc.contributor.author
Piao, Shilonog
dc.contributor.author
Le Quéré, Corinne
dc.contributor.author
Smith, Benjamin
dc.contributor.author
Zhu, Zaichun
dc.contributor.author
Myneni, Ranga
dc.date.accessioned
2018-07-13T13:49:18Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-11T16:14:23Z
dc.date.available
2018-07-13T13:49:18Z
dc.date.issued
2015-02
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/bg-12-653-2015
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/98320
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000098320
dc.description.abstract
The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2015-02-02
ethz.journal.title
Biogeosciences
ethz.journal.volume
12
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
3
en_US
ethz.pages.start
653
en_US
ethz.pages.end
679
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03731 - Gruber, Nicolas / Gruber, Nicolas
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-11T16:14:39Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593652f24dceb59303
ethz.ecitpid
pub:153777
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-20T13:43:11Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-01-02T13:24:32Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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