Should we construct more skyscrapers? Scenario-based, energy performance assessment of plausible future urban densifications
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Date
2025-11
Publication Type
Conference Paper
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yes
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Abstract
Increases in Switzerland’s population and the rate of urbanisation create the need for a better densification of its cities. This study assesses different urban developments in four plausible futures in Zurich and evaluates them through the perspectives of three energy performances: energy demands, emissions, and solar potentials. Scenario-based approaches are used to construct four futures with two axes: an ageing society that is either more or less productive, and with an urban spread that is either more centrally or decentrally planned. A parametric study is then conducted, with each future described with six parameters: new building typologies, occupancy rates, neighbourhood uses, residential schedule, commercial schedule, and existing building retrofitting. Through combinations of these parameters, 2,208 simulation cases are defined and simulated with City Energy Analyst (CEA). The methodology is applied and demonstrated in a case study at Altstetten Nord. The results suggest that skyscrapers are demand-efficient solutions, but at the expense of emissions and solar generation potential. The study explores trade-offs between different performance metrics for different block typologies. A design explorer is presented to summarise the best designs for different plausible futures.
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Publication status
published
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
3140 (6)
Pages / Article No.
62017
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Event
International Scientific Conference on the Built Environment in Transition (CISBAT 2025)
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
UBEM; urban densification; Embodied emissions; Scenario analysis
Organisational unit
03902 - Schlüter, Arno / Schlüter, Arno