Journal: Energy and Climate Change

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Publisher

Elsevier

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ISSN

2666-2787

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2024 - 20252
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Publications 1 - 2 of 2
  • Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study
    Item type: Journal Article
    Sands, Ronald D.; Wachs, Liz; Lamers, Patrick; et al. (2025)
    Energy and Climate Change
    The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. This paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO2, and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.
  • Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum
    Item type: Journal Article
    Sarmiento, Luis; Emmerling, Johannes; Pietzcker, Robert; et al. (2024)
    Energy and Climate Change
    Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. In our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.
Publications 1 - 2 of 2