A paradigm for developing earthquake probability forecasts based on geoelectric data


METADATA ONLY
Loading...

Date

2021-01-19

Publication Type

Journal Article

ETH Bibliography

yes

Citations

Altmetric
METADATA ONLY

Data

Rights / License

Abstract

We examine the precursory behavior of geoelectric signals before large earthquakes by means of a previously published algorithm including an alarm-based model and binary classification [H.-J. Chen, C.-C. Chen, Nat. Hazards 84, 877 (2016)]. The original method has been improved by removing a time parameter used for coarse-graining of earthquake occurrences, as well as by extending the single-station method into a joint-stations method. Analyzing the filtered geoelectric data with different frequency bands, we determine the optimal frequency bands of earthquake-related geoelectric signals featuring the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Based on significance tests, we also provide evidence of a relationship between geoelectric signals and seismicity. We suggest using machine learning to extract this underlying relationship, which could be used to quantify probabilistic forecasts of impending earthquakes and to get closer to operational earthquake prediction. © 2021, EDP Sciences, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.

Publication status

published

Editor

Book title

Volume

230 (1)

Pages / Article No.

381 - 407

Publisher

Springer

Event

Edition / version

Methods

Software

Geographic location

Date collected

Date created

Subject

Organisational unit

03738 - Sornette, Didier (emeritus) / Sornette, Didier (emeritus) check_circle

Notes

Funding

Related publications and datasets

Is new version of: