Maximum Magnitude Forecast in Hydraulic Stimulation Based on Clustering and Size Distribution of Early Microseismicity
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Date
2018-07-28
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
We interpreted the spatial clustering and size distribution of induced microseismicity observed during the stimulation of an enhanced geothermal system beneath Basel by comparison with scale-invariant synthetic data derived from discrete fracture network models. We evaluated microseimic specific influential factors including the effect of hypocentral location uncertainties, existence of a fractured zone and repeating events on the observed spatial organization. Using a dual power-law model originally developed in the context of discrete fracture network modeling, we developed theoretically the relationships among spatial clustering and magnitude distributions. We applied this model to the Basel data set and showed that the spatial clustering characteristics presented stationary properties during the hydraulic stimulation. Based on this observation, we proposed a statistical seismicity model calibrated on the scaling of early stimulation spatial patterns that is capable of forecasting the maximum magnitude of induced events with increasing injection time and stimulated volume.
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published
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Journal / series
Volume
45 (14)
Pages / Article No.
6907 - 6917
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Event
Edition / version
Methods
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Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
induced seismicity; fracture network; enhanced geothermal systems
Organisational unit
03465 - Löw, Simon (emeritus) / Löw, Simon (emeritus)
02818 - Schweiz. Erdbebendienst (SED) / Swiss Seismological Service (SED)
Notes
Funding
608553 - Integrated Methods for Advanced Geothermal Exploration (EC)