Assessment of Projected Climate Change Impact on A Parametric Agricultural Insurance Product
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2022-04-19
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Master Thesis
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Abstract
Agricultural production is a key pillar of food security (Swiss Re, sigma No 1/2013). One of the most highly rated risks that may dynamically impact agriculture, is climate change. Climate change may threaten agriculture's inherent diversification benefits due to winter and summer crops and/ or geographic spread. This thesis investigates the changing risk landscape at a higher granularity compared to other relevant research (keeping in mind the limitations at the regional scale). The following method within the CLIMADA environment is mainly used to assess the climate’s impacts on crops: process-based crop growth models. To achieve the goal of the thesis, CLIMADA combined with output from AgMIP and ISIMIP will be used for the overall analysis. The main questions to address are how climate change impacts the 'tailish' behavior of agricultural portfolios and how climate change threatens portfolio diversification benefits caused by the geographic and seasonal (i.e., winter vs summer crops) diversification of each portfolio. As a consequence, the impact of projected mid-term climate change on the interannual yield variability, the trend and ultimately the severity of different cat event (e.g., 1-in-100-year) scenarios will be analyzed. Primary data collection methods and especially quantitative methods - time series analysis - can be reliably implemented to get the possible desired results. However, some results as well as limitations and observable weaknesses can be effectively stated throughout the research of this paper.
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Examiner: Bresch, David N.
Examiner: Ciullo, Alessio
Examiner: Eberenz, Samuel
Examiner : Roy, Sagarika
Examiner : Mystakidis, Stefanos
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ETH Zurich
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09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus