Probability-based Resilience Assessment of Communities with Interdependent Civil Infrastructure Systems
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Date
2021
Publication Type
Conference Paper
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yes
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Abstract
Communities exposed to seismic hazards should make their infrastructure more resilient to minimize the potential damaging effects of earthquakes. To rationally decide on investments to improve infrastructure systems’ performance in future events, an estimate of potential consequences of such events is needed. A probability-based model that quantifies the seismic resilience of a community enables such rational performance-based decision making. A probability-based resilience assessment using a modular model of a community supplied by interdependent civil infrastructure systems is presented in this paper. The model simulates the hazard in the hazard module, then assesses the drop in the functionality of the community due to the suffered damage in the vulnerability module. Next, the functional recovery module simulates the increase of community functionality over time. Finally, seismic resilience is quantified in the resilience quantification module. Using the Re-CoDeS framework for resilience quantification, the proposed model measures the Lack of Resilience (LoR) of the community with respect to each resource or service provided by the civil infrastructure systems. The proposed model is applied to a virtual community supplied by three interdependent civil infrastructure systems: electric power supply, water supply system and cellular communication system. The expected LoR increases with the intensity of the earthquake. Loss curves, plots of the mean annual rate of exceedance of community LoR values for a given seismic hazard exposure, probabilistically quantify this trend. Interdependency effects are evaluated, by comparing two modelling cases: the independent case – where the drop in the functionality of a component is solely the consequence of its current damage; and the interdependent case – where the functionality of a component also depends on the availability of resources and services the component needs to operate. Interdependency effects amplify the LoR for all considered resources and services at all hazard intensities.
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published
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Book title
Proceedings of the Seventeenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Japan 2021
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Pages / Article No.
Publisher
National Information Center of Earthquake Engineering
Event
17th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (17WCEE 2020-21)
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Software
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Subject
Resilience; Recovery; Civil infrastructure system; Interdependency
Organisational unit
03930 - Stojadinovic, Bozidar / Stojadinovic, Bozidar
Notes
Conference lecture held at poster session on September 29, 2021. Conference postponed due to Corona virus (COVID-19), and rescheduled from September 13-18, 2020 to September 27 - October 2, 2021.