Climate models without preindustrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion
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Date
2013-04-28
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.
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published
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Journal / series
Volume
40 (8)
Pages / Article No.
1600 - 1604
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
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Subject
Volcano; Ocean heat content; Climate change; Sea level rise