Journal: Diskussionspapiere

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Publisher

Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

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ISSN

1433-0210
1619-4535

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Publications 1 - 1 of 1
  • Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland
    Item type: Working Paper
    Siliverstovs, Boriss; Ötsch, Rainald; Kemfert, Claudia; et al. (2008)
    Diskussionspapiere
    This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.
Publications 1 - 1 of 1