Increasing central and northern European summer heatwave intensity due to forced changes in internal variability
OPEN ACCESS
Loading...
Author / Producer
Date
2025-12
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
OPEN ACCESS
Data
Rights / License
Abstract
In recent years, European summer heatwaves have strongly intensified due to rising anthropogenic emissions. While European summer heatwaves will continue to intensify due to the warming of summer temperatures, the effects of the changes in internal variability under global warming remain unknown. Employing five single-model initial-condition large ensembles, we find that the forced changes in internal variability are projected to intensify central and northern European summer heatwaves. Central and northern Europe will experience frequent moisture limitations, enhancing land-atmosphere feedback and increasing heatwave intensity and variability. In contrast, the forced changes in internal variability will contribute to weakening southern European summer heatwaves. Southern Europe is projected to face a more stable moisture-depleted environment that reduces extreme temperature variability and heatwave intensity. Our findings imply that while adaptation to increasing mean temperatures in southern Europe should suffice to reduce the vulnerability to increasing EuSHW intensity, in central and northern Europe adaptation to increased temperature variability will also be needed.
Permanent link
Publication status
published
External links
Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
16 (1)
Pages / Article No.
9485
Publisher
Nature