Extending ERM-CH23 to shallow induced seismicity in Switzerland


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Date

2025-06-10

Publication Type

Report

ETH Bibliography

yes

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Abstract

The risks from induced seismicity remain a persistent and complex issue that needs to be managed. Appropriate modeling of these risks is essential in order to facilitate both the permitting process of certain energy-production projects and the acquisition of insurance against potential losses. For Switzerland, the most relevant causal factors of induced seismicity are likely hydraulic stimulations for Enhanced Geothermal Systems and fluid disposal for storage. The earthquakes that these activities might trigger are expected to be quite shallow, of mostly small to moderate magnitude. Their nucleation mechanism might also differ, compared to tectonic events. Thus, their source characteristics and the attenuation of their ground motion might be partly incompatible with the modeling assumptions adopted by the national Earthquake Hazard Model of Switzerland (SUIhaz2015; Wiemer et al., 2016; Papadopoulos et al., 2024a). This report investigated these issues, as well as, the possibility that the fragility models of the Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23; Wiemer et al., 2023) might warrant modifications for similar reasons.. The results of these investigations highlighted the need to adjust some aspects of the risk model to render it suitable for (shallow) induced seismicity in Switzerland. In the end, new recommendations were made regarding the minimum and maximum magnitude, two new intensity measures were added to the vulnerability models, while major changes were made to the ground shaking branching level. The latter is now magnitude-dependent, only includes spectral acceleration models and was tilted towards lower stress-parameter values. A ready to use version of the updated risk model, called Induced Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (IERM-CH25), is now available. Finally, risk calculations, including sensitivity analyses, were conducted for certain scenario earthquakes at selected sites.

Publication status

published

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Pages / Article No.

Publisher

Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich

Event

Edition / version

Revised second version

Methods

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Subject

induced seismicity; seismic risk; seismic hazard; geothermal; Energy production

Organisational unit

02818 - Schweiz. Erdbebendienst (SED) / Swiss Seismological Service (SED) check_circle

Notes

The original version of this text was blocked and replaced because it contained minor errors and lacked a co-author.

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