How many people do coastal ecosystems protect from tropical cyclones globally?
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2022-11-11
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Master Thesis
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Abstract
Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) are key to climate change mitigation, but can also deliver important co-benefits, such as disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. Previous research has used a variety of methods to assess NCS and ecosystem-based risk reduction. The overarching question this thesis aims to answer is: How many people do coastal ecosystems protect from the impacts of tropical cyclones and resulting storm surges?
The combination of event-based risk modelling and ecosystem modelling data is a novel approach. This research uses the probabilistic model CLIMADA and ecosystem service data to quantify the coastal protection provided by coastal ecosystems. First, a baseline of the number of people impacted by tropical cyclones in the low-elevation coastal zone and the number of people simultaneously within the protection distance of coastal habitats is established. Next, the baseline is compared with historical habitat and population data from 1992. Looking to the future, we investigate changes in coastal protection under climate change (SSP585 in 2050). Finally, scenarios of different options for human action in protecting, managing, and restoring nature in the near future (2050) are appraised: continued forest conversion, agroforestry, mangrove restoration, and reforestation.
The current number of people in the low-elevation coastal zone protected from tropical cyclones by coastal habitats is 13.84 million, which corresponds to approximately a quarter of all people impacted by tropical cyclones in this zone. Historically, the share of people protected has decreased by approximately 4%, both due to population developments, as well as habitat loss. The average numbers of people impacted and protected annually will increase up to 40% with climate change, however, there is a slight decrease in the share of people protected. Protecting, managing, and restoring nature is important to prevent a further decrease in protection, on a global scale, but especially on a local level. While the number of people protected globally only increases slightly across the nature management and protection scenarios, protection in individual countries can increase by up to 31% - 37% under reforestation and mangrove restoration respectively, and up to 6% under agroforestry. The findings of form an important basis for policy and the use of NCS for disaster risk reduction, e.g. by highlighting areas which have both a need for protection and a potential for NCS.
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ETH Zurich
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09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus