Policies for cost-effective decarbonization of residential buildings and transport: Addressing sector coupling and diverse actor perspectives
EMBARGOED UNTIL 2026-10-31
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2025
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Doctoral Thesis
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EMBARGOED UNTIL 2026-10-31
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Abstract
Climate change is one of the most urgent challenges of our time, requiring rapid decarbonization across all sectors to limit global temperature increases. The buildings and transport sectors together account for a substantial share of global final energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions. This makes their decarbonization critical for achieving climate targets. However, current emission reductions fall short of the targets, which indicates that existing policy measures have been insufficient to drive the necessary structural changes quickly enough.
The decarbonization of residential energy systems, which includes both building energy use and associated mobility demands, is essential but faces several challenges. High upfront costs for building retrofits and electric vehicle adoption deter households and property owners despite potential long-term cost savings. Further, the electrification of both heating and transportation introduces new interdependencies between previously separate sectors, referred to as sector coupling. The transition is further complicated by the involvement of numerous actors, whose misaligned interests can hinder the implementation of decarbonization measures. Designing policies that do not consider these sectoral interdependencies and actor-specific perspectives results in slower emission reductions.
Techno-economic optimization models are valuable tools for exploring cost-effective decarbonization pathways, but current approaches have limitations when applied to residential energy systems. Most existing models focus on single sectors or make considerable simplifications when modeling multiple sectors. This limits their ability to identify cross-sectoral synergies. Further, they typically adopt a central planner perspective that does not account for the diverse actors involved in residential energy transitions, which can lead to solutions that are theoretically optimal but cannot be implemented.
This thesis addresses the central research question: What policies enable the cost-effective decarbonization of residential buildings and transportation, considering sector coupling and different actor perspectives? It develops comprehensive techno-economic optimization frameworks using multi-stage mixed-integer linear programming models and applies them to Swiss case studies, representative of the broader European context. It advances traditional techno-economic modeling along two primary dimensions: sector coupling through building-electric vehicle integration, and the consideration of different actor perspectives.
Four individual studies collectively address different aspects of the research question. Study I introduces MANGOever, a comprehensive framework for optimizing building energy systems, retrofits, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure over long time horizons. It incorporates EV driver behaviors based on real-world travel patterns rather than assuming perfect control over charging processes. Study II applies the MANGOever framework to assess different electricity pricing structures for residential customers. It analyzes how tariff designs impact both building and transportation electrification. Study III shifts the focus to institutional real estate portfolios. It introduces a portfolio-level optimization framework that accounts for heterogeneous building characteristics and different policy scenarios and enables the identification of cost-effective retrofitting strategies at the portfolio level. Study IV addresses the landlord-tenant dilemma by integrating different actor perspectives and evaluating policy instruments designed to address the split incentives between building owners and tenants.
The thesis contributes to the growing body of literature on techno-economic optimization modeling for the residential energy transition. Methodologically, it extends existing modeling approaches by incorporating behaviorally realistic driver patterns from empirically grounded agent-based models to enable a more accurate assessment of available flexibility in electric vehicle charging demand. It proposes frameworks that account for actor heterogeneity and distributed decision-making. The portfolio approach in Study III offers a novel perspective that links individual building retrofit plans to real estate investment portfolios, while Study IV advances the modeling of distributional policy impacts by capturing the perspectives of both landlords and tenants.
Key empirical findings demonstrate the potential of sector coupling to improve system efficiency. Time-of-use electricity tariffs and increasing block grid charges effectively support heat pump adoption and EV home charging. For institutional investors, portfolio-level policy approaches are more advantageous than building-level requirements, as they reduce total decarbonization costs while achieving similar emission reductions. Addressing the landlord-tenant dilemma requires comprehensive policy mixes as individual measures prove insufficient to encourage both energy supply- and demand-side interventions. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers who aim to accelerate residential energy system decarbonization. They highlight how coordinated policy design across sectors is essential to avoid conflicting signals that could discourage electrification. The frameworks developed in this thesis bridge the gap between theoretical decarbonization potential and real-world implementation and provide insights into more effective, socially acceptable, and economically viable policy instruments.
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Examiner: Hoffmann, Volker H.
Examiner : Maréchal, Francois
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ETH Zurich
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03695 - Hoffmann, Volker / Hoffmann, Volker