Assessing farmers’ income vulnerability to vanilla and clove export economies in northeastern Madagascar using land-use change modelling
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Author / Producer
Date
2023
Publication Type
Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Using a participatory Bayesian network-based land-use decision model, we simulate future land-use patterns under various scenarios, including changes in vanilla and clove market prices as well as changes in irrigation water availability and potential harvest failures. Findings indicate that specifically the vanilla value chain (compared to the clove value chain) has a major influence on farmers income vulnerability. Abandoning vanilla cultivation may lead to poverty once income from vanilla reaches a certain threshold. By comparing farmer’s income gains from cash crop production with costs for buying rice to cover basic needs, we show that while focusing on cash crop production is more lucrative, it is, however, highly risky with regard to climate change, price volatility and possible crop thefts. Such lock-in-effects in cash crops, like the vanilla ones in northeastern Madagascar, are essential to be considered, when designing policies for a more sustainable development of resource-rich but poverty-prone regions.
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Publication status
published
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Editor
Book title
Journal / series
Volume
18 (1)
Pages / Article No.
55 - 83
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Event
Edition / version
Methods
Software
Geographic location
Date collected
Date created
Subject
Bayesian network; cloveland use; Madagascar; vanilla; vulnerability
Organisational unit
03823 - Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne / Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
Notes
Funding
177592 - Managing telecoupled landscapes for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services and poverty alleviation (SNF)
152167 - SNF R4D (SNF)
152167 - SNF R4D (SNF)