The Role of Citizens in Democratic Backsliding
EMBARGOED UNTIL 2027-01-29
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Date
2023
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Doctoral Thesis
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yes
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EMBARGOED UNTIL 2027-01-29
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Abstract
In several democracies around the world, elected incumbents induce gradual democratic backsliding and are confirmed in office when running for re-election. This dissertation examines the conditions under which citizens may avert democratic decay while elections remain competitive and when they fail to do so, addressing three central questions in the burgeoning scholarship on democratic backsliding: How do citizen attitudes toward democracy influence anti-pluralist governments' conduct toward democratic institutions? How do divergent understandings of democracy feed into vote choices for non-liberal politicians? And under which conditions are citizens willing to safeguard democracy by retracting support from politicians who attacked democratic institutions? The first paper argues that in societies where citizens are strongly committed to democracy, anti-pluralist incumbents will be more reluctant to undermine democratic institutions, as they fear electoral punishment and public backlash. A time-series analysis of citizens' support for democracy and the ideological orientation of governments provides evidence consistent with this argument. The second paper submits that citizens subscribe to divergent notions of democracy (liberal, majoritarian, and authoritarian) and that they prefer politicians holding congruent democratic values. It provides survey experimental evidence from Poland and shows that embracing a liberal notion of democracy makes citizens more resilient against majoritarian and authoritarian political candidates. The third paper introduces a sequential perspective on the way in which citizens can avert democratic backsliding in representative democracies, highlighting that they can only retrospectively react to elite violations of democratic principles in subsequent elections. A survey experiment fielded in Poland simulating the timing of events in which elites subvert democracy reveals that citizens strongly disapprove of attacks on electoral institutions but that such evaluations are not consequential for their decision to revise previous vote choices. The fourth paper examines the determinants of electoral movements away from the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party after it induced democratic backsliding in Poland in 2015. It finds that undemocratic incumbents are being punished for failing to provide economic prosperity and rewarded for implementing generous welfare programs. By contrast, civic factors play less of a role in vote shifts to the opposition. Overall, the dissertation's findings suggest that citizens do not actively endorse undemocratic actions committed by their co-partisan leaders, but that they are mainly unwilling to retract votes from them. However, incumbents who undermine liberal democracy face the same electoral dynamics as their undemocratic counterparts: being punished for being incapable of catering to citizens' economic demands and for inadequately addressing moments of crisis.
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ETH Zurich
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Subject
Democratic backsliding
Organisational unit
03714 - Schimmelfennig, Frank / Schimmelfennig, Frank
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185908 - Democratic Backsliding in Eastern Europe: Sequence, Strategies, and Citizens (SNF)