Anurag Gumber
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- A global analysis of renewable energy project commissioning timelinesItem type: Journal Article
Applied EnergyGumber, Anurag; Zana, Riccardo; Steffen, Bjarne (2024)Many countries are targeting the rapid and deep decarbonization of their energy supply, with renewable energy technologies playing a key role. Despite increased technology maturity and dramatically decreased costs, the deployment momentum of renewables often lags behind ambitious policy commitments. Accordingly, policymakers must accelerate the development of projects to meet decarbonization goals. However, we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of how long projects of renewable energy take to commission, whether projects are executed faster as technologies mature, and which factors affect the timelines – this knowledge gap affects policymakers and energy researchers providing model-based policy advice alike. To fill this gap, we analyzed global commissioning times between 2005 and 2022, drawing on the data for 12,475 projects using solar photovoltaic (PV), wind onshore, wind offshore, biomass, and run-off-river hydro in 48 countries. We found that average commissioning times have increased substantially over the past two decades for all renewable energy technologies of all project sizes. This finding highlights the need to incorporate up-to-date commissioning times in energy models to generate realistic model-based policy advice. In addition, we identified five categories of factors that affect commissioning timelines, conducted cross-sectional analyses with fixed-effect models, and present implications for policymakers, businesses, and researchers. - Renewable Energy Infrastructure Finance & Development Through the Technology LifecycleItem type: Doctoral ThesisGumber, Anurag (2024)
- Harnessing solar power in the Alps: A study on the financial viability of mountain PV systemsItem type: Journal Article
Applied EnergyĐukan, Mak; Gut, David; Gumber, Anurag; et al. (2024)Solar photovoltaics (PV) plays an essential role in decarbonization but faces challenges in regions with seasonal climates, where electricity generation decreases during wintertime, necessitating additional backup capacity or imports. Installing PV plants in the mountains could address this challenge by increasing PV generation in winter when more sunlight reaches higher altitudes. We explore the financial viability of such plants by using Switzerland and its support policies as a case study. Using a mixed-method approach, including interviews and financial modeling, we assess costs, business models, and profitability across 6561 scenarios with varying investment conditions. We find that ground-mounted PV systems have investment costs between 2231 EUR/kW to 4182 EUR/kW and generation costs between 97 and 162 EUR/MWh, respectively. The prevailing business models in Switzerland favor utilities with a customer base, achieving median equity IRRs of 8.6%. Selling electricity at a 79 EUR/MWh 10-year PPA would guarantee profitability only with aggressive electricity price assumptions, sculpted debt repayment, and lower CAPEX. Based on these results, we discuss the structure of the Swiss support regime and potential adaptations. - Lending over the technology lifecycle: Strategies for information search by banks in renewable energy project financeItem type: Journal Article
Journal of Climate FinanceGumber, Anurag; Steffen, Bjarne (2025)Commercial bank credit is pivotal for the development of large-scale assets. However, technological immaturity may hinder access to bank capital, particularly when banks lack information on a new technology's history and investment risk profile. We currently lack an understanding of how the banking sector can overcome this hurdle. Thus, this study examines the strategies banks use to gather information and develop a financial understanding of emerging technologies. Using two-part fractional response models and data on 7826 project finance deals in renewable energy, we find that, under technological uncertainty, banks gain confidence through brownfield lending, syndication, and information sourcing from borrowers until a strong banking network is formed. Furthermore, ownership and past lending relationships influence bank decisions. The dynamic results emphasize the importance of early bank entry and relationship building. The study concludes with policy implications, underscoring the need for greater coordination of public finance and formation of intermediation platforms.
Publications 1 - 4 of 4