Catching a floating treasure
A genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time
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Date
2012-01
Publication Type
Working Paper
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yes
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Abstract
Forecasting real economic activity poses a considerable challenge not only due to hard-to-predict events like the current financial crisis but also due to the fact that targeted variables often undergo significant revisions after their first publication. In this paper we report the results of a genuine ex-ante forecasting experiment in real time. It highlights the difficulties of hitting a moving target and shows that in a realistic setting linear models in combination with survey data perform as good as much more sophisticated approaches.
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published
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Volume
297
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
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Subject
ECONOMETRICS AND ECONOMETRIC MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; BRUTTONATIONALEINKOMMEN; ÖKONOMETRIE UND ÖKONOMETRISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH); WIRTSCHAFTSPROGNOSEN; Survey data; GDP revisions; Forecasting; ECONOMIC FORECASTS; Experiment
Organisational unit
02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute