A case for degrowth: Material demand projections under the three IPCC’s most ambitious illustrative mitigation pathways: neodymium in wind power and transportation
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2023-08-24
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Master Thesis
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Abstract
The rapid growth of clean technologies to address climate change has emphasized the increasing complexity of materials, some of which face criticality and potential supply disruptions. Inte- grated assessment models (IAMs) used for designing illustrative mitigation pathways (IMPs) lack comprehensive information on material annual demand projection. This study focuses on the demand for the rare earth element neodymium (Nd) until 2050 in wind power and transporta- tion sectors. The assessment is based on the three most ambitious IMPs, namely “Low Energy Demand” (LD), “Sustainability Pathways” (SP), and “Rapid Technology Change” (Ren), from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Report 6 (AR6). The results show that Nd demand steadily increases in all scenarios, but the magnitude and growth rates vary. The LD scenario exhibits the lowest material needs in passenger transport due to shared road transport and rail preferences, consequence of a focus on final energy use changes, while the SP scenario presents the highest growth in material demand. The Ren scenario, char- acterized by fast electrification and energy intensity improvements, represents a middle-ground scenario for material demand with good opportunities for recycling. This study underscores the significance of considering material demand in scenario design and highlights the importance of better assessing crucial external factors used for material stock determination in the future. The findings contribute to improving scenario design precision and the understanding of material use implications, providing valuable insights for climate policies and resource management strategies.
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Examiner : Steinberger, Julia
Examiner: Lohmann, Ulrike
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ETH Zurich
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Subject
Industrial ecology; Material flow analysis (MFA); Scenario analysis; Degrowth; Renewable energy; Electrification; environment; IPCC
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03690 - Lohmann, Ulrike / Lohmann, Ulrike