Journal: Natural Hazards

Abbreviation

Nat. hazards

Publisher

Springer

Journal Volumes

ISSN

0921-030X
1573-0840

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Publications 1 - 10 of 38
  • Disaster warning response: the effects of different types of personal experience
    Item type: Journal Article
    Patt, Anthony; Sharma, Upasna (2012)
    Natural Hazards
  • Rheological characteristics of debris-flow material in South-Gargano watersheds
    Item type: Journal Article
    Bisantino, Tiziana; Fischer, Peter; Gentile, Francesco (2010)
    Natural Hazards
  • Erratum to: Assessing response behaviour of debris-flows affected communities in Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Item type: Other Journal Item
    Luo, Yuner; Shaw, Rajib; Lin, Hanliang; et al. (2014)
    Natural Hazards
  • The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach
    Item type: Journal Article
    Mignan, Arnaud; Wiemer, Stefan; Giardini, Domenico (2014)
    Natural Hazards
    Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.
  • A risk-based multi-level stress test methodology: application to six critical non-nuclear infrastructures in Europe
    Item type: Journal Article
    Argyroudis, Sotirios A.; Fotopoulou, Stavroula; Karafagka, Stella; et al. (2020)
    Natural Hazards
  • Testing the correlations between anomalies of statistical indexes of the geoelectric system and earthquakes
    Item type: Journal Article
    Chen, Hong-Jia; Chen, Chien-Chih (2016)
    Natural Hazards
    Geoelectric precursors are considered to be predictors of earthquakes, but this issue is still under debate. The objective of this research is to statistically test the relationship between the geoelectric system and earthquakes. We observed that anomalies of skewness and kurtosis of geoelectric fields may precede large earthquakes. Next, we developed an alarm model of time of increased probability to quantitatively determine their relationship. Performing binary classification and C1–F1 analysis on both statistical anomalies and earthquake occurrences, the alarm model implies that the statistical correlation between the geoelectric system and earthquakes exists with high confidence. We explained the results by critical transition, which refers to the state of a system becoming slower as it recovers from small perturbations when the system approaches critical points. Hence, generic symptoms, such as autocorrelation, variance, skewness, and kurtosis, can vary appreciably. Early warning signals for critical transitions of the geoelectric system might correspond to impending large earthquakes, in agreement with independent suggestions by other authors that appeared very recently. Consequently, we suggest that the critical transition will take place in the crustal system. Furthermore, we establish a standard procedure to examine the relationship between potential precursor indexes and earthquakes.
  • Potentials and constraints of different types of soil moisture observations for flood simulations in headwater catchments
    Item type: Journal Article
    Bronstert, Axel; Creutzfeldt, Benjamin; Graeff, Thomas; et al. (2012)
    Natural Hazards
  • A subaqueous hazard map for earthquake-triggered landslides in Lake Zurich, Switzerland
    Item type: Journal Article
    Strupler, Michael; Danciu, Laurentiu; Hilbe, Michael; et al. (2018)
    Natural Hazards
    The awareness of geohazards in the subaqueous environment has steadily increased in the past years and there is an increased need to assess these hazards in a quantitative sense. Prime examples are subaqueous landslides, which can be triggered by a number of processes including earthquakes or human activities, and which may impact offshore and onshore infrastructure and communities. In the literature, a plenitude of subaqueous landslide events are related to historical earthquakes, including cases from lakes in Switzerland. Here, we present an approach for a basin-wide earthquake-triggered subaquatic landslide hazard assessment for Lake Zurich, which is surrounded by a densely populated shoreline. Our analysis is based on high-resolution sediment-mechanical and geophysical input data. Slope stabilities are calculated with a grid-based limit equilibrium model on an infinite slope, which uses Monte Carlo sampled input data from a sediment-mechanical stratigraphy of the lateral slopes. Combined with probabilistic ground-shaking forecasts from a recent national seismic hazard analysis, subaquatic earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps are constructed for different mean return periods, ranging from 475 to 9975 years. Our results provide a first quantitative landslide hazard estimation for the lateral slopes in Lake Zurich. Furthermore, a back-analysis of a case-study site indicates that pseudostatic accelerations in the range between 0.04 and 0.08 g were needed to trigger a well-investigated subaqueous landslide, dated to ~2210 cal. years B.P.
  • The co-production of risk from a natural hazards perspective: science and policy interaction for landslide risk management in Italy
    Item type: Journal Article
    Scolobig, Anna; Pelling, Mark (2016)
    Natural Hazards
  • Compromise not consensus: designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation
    Item type: Journal Article
    Scolobig, Anna; Thompson, Michael; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne (2016)
    Natural Hazards
Publications 1 - 10 of 38