SocArXiv

Journal: SocArXiv

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Center for Open Science

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Publications 1 - 10 of 12

Why Online does not Equal Offline: Comparing Online and Real-World Political Support Among Politicians
Brandenberger, Laurence; Casiraghi, Giona; Andres, Georges; et al. (2021)
SocArXiv
Are offline political relations and endorsements established or maintained with online interactions? We examine the external validity of data on political behavior exhibited online and compare it to offline behavior. We overlay two data sets on political support among members of the Swiss parliament to estimate the explanatory power of online endorsements on offline cosponsorship signatures among members, using a gHypEG network regression model. Whereas offline support behavior is driven by a broad range of factors, such as network and homophily effects, online endorsement is less diverse. Our findings show that online endorsement is predominantly driven by partisanship, calling into question the use of online political behavior data to study real-world politics.
A new theory of social roles in networks
Roller, Ramona; Schweitzer, Frank (2021)
SocArXiv
Theories of social roles neglect social clusters. However, accounting for clusters is essential because individuals in social networks (e.g., social media) cannot oversee the whole network and have to restrict their interactions to local substructures. Roles which do not account for this cluster formation may lead to misinterpretations of the networks dynamics and functions. This article proposes a theory of social roles in large social networks. We group roles detected in previous empirical studies into meta-roles and embed them along two dimensions, strategicness describing whether the person works towards a particular goal or not, and the type of strategy (selfish or group-oriented). We extend this framework by adding a cluster dimension describing to what extent a persons interactions are embedded locally or globally in the network. We argue that empirical role analyses would benefit from our theory by systematically accounting for complex structures specific to the network perspective, generalising empirical findings beyond individual case studies, and understanding human interactions better.
Citizens support ambitious but costly regulation against food waste
Fesenfeld, Lukas Paul; Rudolph, Lukas; Bernauer, Thomas (2021)
SocArXiv
About one-third of all food produced for human consumption worldwide is wasted, particularly in high-income countries. Reducing this waste is key to decreasing negative environmental impacts from the food sector and increasing food security in developing countries. Yet, achieving food waste reduction is challenging. It is widely presumed that efforts at stricter food waste regulation may increase food prices, and hence consumer and citizen opposition could render such ambitious regulation politically unfeasible. Here, we argue that appropriate policy framing, design, and feedbacks can ensure public support despite food price increases. Our empirical analysis uses survey experiments with a population-representative sample (N=3’329) from a typical high-income country, Switzerland. First, in a combined framing and conjoint experiment, we show that messages emphasizing national or international social norms in favor of reducing food waste (policy framing) can increase public support for more ambitious reduction targets. We also show that a majority of citizens support food waste regulation, even if this leads to substantial increases in food prices, but only if such policies set stringent reduction targets and are transparently monitored (policy design). Finally, in a vignette experiment, we show that voluntary industry initiatives do not crowd out individuals’ support for stricter governmental regulation, but potentially crowd-in support if industry initiatives are unambitious (policy feedback). Our research offers an analytical template for studying public support for food waste regulation and shows that there is more political room for adopting ambitious policies than hitherto presumed.
Policymaking under Influence
Blumenthal, Benjamin (2024)
SocArXiv
Policymaking is an arduous process and politicians often fail to change the status quo despite their best efforts. I introduce the notion of influence players, an umbrella term for political actors such as interest groups or legislators, who can positively or negatively affect policy proposals’ odds of implementation by exerting costly effort. Analysing a parsimonious model of policymaking with an imperfectly effective politician and an influence player, I show how and when threats, opposition, or support can affect policymaking, depending on the influence player’s cost of effort and effectiveness. My comparative static analysis shows that, under certain conditions, influence players can be harmed by being more effective or having a lower cost of effort, through these changes’ consequences on their bargaining position. I conclude my analysis by discussing the perspectives the model offers on legislative politics and special interest politics.
A Weighted Balance Model of Opinion Hyperpolarization
Schweighofer, Simon; Schweitzer, Frank; Garcia, David (2019)
SocArXiv
Polarization is threatening the stability of democratic societies. Until now, polarization research has focused on opinion extremeness, overlooking the correlation between different policy issues. We explain the emergence of hyperpolarization, i.e. the combination of extremeness and correlation between issues, by developing Weighted Balance Theory (WBT), a new theory of opinion formation. WBT extends Heiders cognitive balance theory to encompass multiple weighted attitudes. We validate WBT on empirical data from the 2016 National Election Survey. Furthermore, we develop an opinion dynamics model based on WBT, which, for the first time, is able to generate hyperpolarization and to explain the link between affective and opinion polarization. In addition, our theory encompasses other phenomena of opinion dynamics, including mono - polarization and backfire effects.
Deontological and Consequentialist Preferences Towards Arms Exports
Rudolph, Lukas; Freitag, Markus; Thurner, Paul W. (2022)
SocArXiv
Despite fierce politicization in arms-exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting arms exports categorically) or consequentialist (trading-off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population-representative survey experiments (N=6,617) in Germany and France (two global top-5 major arms exporters), we find that 10-15% of respondents follow deontologist considerations, a preference structure likely relevant for all foreign policies involving the use of force. Still, a vast majority shows differentiated preferences, giving largest weight to normative considerations, with assessments affected by moderating features (e.g., scenarios of just war). Expressions of deontologist preferences and a large consequentialist weight for normative factors are more pronounced in Germany compared to France, indicating a link between population preferences and elite-level strategic cultures and institutions. Last, respondents' preferences match opinion-polls on post-Russian invasion Ukraine-armament, indicating high external validity of our experiments.
Do distributional consequences affect public goods provision? Insights from 5G antenna placement in Switzerland
Rudolph, Lukas; Quoß, Franziska; Bernauer, Thomas (2022)
SocArXiv
Distributional implications of public goods provision may affect the ability of societies to provide these. Particularly, localized provision costs may result in opposition in the vicinity of provision sites, reducing provision levels and/or efficiency (“not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) challenge). We examine mass public support on policy provision in this regard, focusing on 5G, the latest technology standard for mobile data transmission, and the placement of 5G antennas in particular. Based on survey experiments with a geo-coded representative sample of over 5’000 residents of Switzerland, revealing real-world antenna locations to respondents, we find that NIMBYism plays a role for individual attitudes/policy preference formation towards 5G expansion. NIMBYism also affects the (stated) propensity to engage in political action against 5G antennas, irrespective of monetary costs. Finally, NIMBYism can be mitigated when citizens decide under a veil of ignorance on a feasible distribution of siting locations, leaving actual site choice to be a technical process.
Tracing the Footsteps of Ideas: Time-respecting Paths Reveal Key Reformers and Communication Pathways in Protestant Letter Networks
Roller, Ramona (2023)
SocArXiv
The transmission of ideas plays a vital role in shaping society, fostering critical thinking, driving innovation, and facilitating cultural development. Previous studies have predominantly employed aggregated networks to investigate how ideas propagate through interactions and relationships among individuals. However, these approaches overlook the temporal ordering of interactions, distorting topological network measures and potentially leading to erroneous conclusions about idea transmission. To address this limitation, this study explores the transmission of ideas using time-respecting paths. A time-respecting path is defined as a sequence of nodes connected by time-consecutive edges, where the inter-edge time is constrained within specific bounds representing the minimum reaction time and maximum memory period before ideas fade away. By constructing time-respecting paths from a network of letter correspondences among 16th-century protestant reformers, this research unveils key reformers and communication patterns that significantly influenced the transmission of ideas. The findings are interpreted in the light of case studies, such as the Osiandrian controversy, which provides valuable insights into historical contexts.
Environmental Change and Migration Aspirations: Evidence from Bangladesh
Koubi, Vally; Freihardt, Jan; Rudolph, Lukas (2022)
SocArXiv
The argument that environmental change is an important driving force of migration has experienced a strong revival in the climate change context. We examine whether and how different environmental stressors aspire people to move. The analysis relies on newly collected, cross-sectional survey data of 1594 households residing in 36 villages along the 250 kilometers of the Jamuna River in Bangladesh – an area affected primarily by floods and riverbank erosion. The results show that long-term environmental events, i.e., riverbank erosion, increase aspirations for internal, permanent migration, while short-term environmental events, i.e., floods, do not affect migration aspirations. These results suggest that depending on the type of environmental change, people might prefer migrating rather than staying put and thus, they entail important policy implications regarding the effects of climate change on future internal migration flows.
The Robotic Herd: Using Human-Bot Interactions to Explore Irrational Herding
Verginer, Luca; Vaccario, Giacomo; Ronzani, Piero (2023)
SocArXiv
We explore human herding in a strategic setting where humans interact with automated entities (bots) and study the shift in the behavior and beliefs of humans when they are aware of interacting with bots. The strategic setting is an online minority game, where 1,997 participants are rewarded for following the minority strategy. This setting permits distinguishing between irrational herding and rational self-interesta fundamental challenge in understanding herding in strategic contexts. Moreover, participants were divided into two groups: one informed of playing against bots (informed condition) and the other unaware (uninformed condition). Our findings revealed that while informed participants adjusted their beliefs about bots' behavior, their actual decisions remained largely unaffected. In both conditions, 30% of participants followed the majority, contrary to theoretical expectations of no herding. This study underscores the persistence of herding behavior in human decision-making, even when participants are aware of interacting with automated entities. The insights provide profound implications for understanding human behavior on digital platforms where interactions with bots are common.

Publications 1 - 10 of 12

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