Ming Chen


Last Name

Chen

First Name

Ming

ORCID

0000-0003-0311-1251

Organisational unit

03905 - Brusoni, Stefano / Brusoni, Stefano

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2022 - 20252
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Publications 1 - 2 of 2
  • Decision Dynamics Under Uncertainty: Complex-Systems Models for Individual Risk Choices and Organizational Tech-Shock Responses
    Item type: Doctoral Thesis
    Chen, Ming (2025)
    This thesis examines decision-making under uncertainty at two levels—individual and organizational—through an emergence lens. For individuals, it develops process-based models of preference construction under limited attention, noise, and time pressure. For organizations, it builds real-time diagnostics for technological reconfiguration and map shifts onto firm positions. Across levels, simple local interactions generate measurable, actionable patterns. Paper 1 introduces a generalized Discrete-Time Quantum Walk (DTQW) for risky choice with tunable coin/shift operators and treats measurement (decoherence) as introspection. It preserves sequential accumulation, yields an endogenous speed–accuracy frontier, separates choice and confidence, and explains probability weighting, order effects, and the conjunction fallacy via interference/non-commutativity. Paper 2 models the decision-maker as neuron-like units on small-world networks—Probabilistic Cellular Automata (PCA)—that update attention in parallel under three forces: probability, magnitude sensitive salience, and local herding. A single compact rule set reproduces the fourfold pattern, stable loss aversion, time/scale reversals, ambiguity aversion, and finite willingness-to-pay in St. Petersburg variants; process traces (switching, dwell times) link mechanism to behavior. Paper 3 treats industry change as a self-exciting network process. Rolling topic models over patent text yield two real-time indicators—Rate of Topic Change (RTC) and Angular Difference in Topic Momentum (ADTM). Joint RTC spikes with ADTM troughs flag regime shifts months to years before citations; shift-driving clusters project to firms via a competence–impact scale, validated in cameras, robotics, and semiconductors. Collectively, the thesis links micro to macro: (i) at the individual level, DTQW fuses interference with sequential accumulation and PCA makes attention the computational currency, yielding calibration-ready engines with explicit timing and confidence; (ii) at the organizational level, RTC/ADTM provide text-first, network-level early-warning indicators of disruption. The result is a unified account connecting micro mechanisms to macro reconfiguration, improving timeliness, granularity, and actionability for researchers, strategists, and policymakers
  • On the use of discrete-time quantum walks in decision theory
    Item type: Journal Article
    Chen, Ming; Ferro, Giuseppe M.; Sornette, Didier (2022)
    PLoS ONE
    We present a short review of discrete-time quantum walks (DTQW) as a potentially useful and rich formalism to model human decision-making. We present a pedagogical introduction of the underlying formalism and main structural properties. We suggest that DTQW are particularly suitable for combining the two strands of literature on evidence accumulator models and on the quantum formalism of cognition. Due to the additional spin degree of freedom, models based on DTQW allow for a natural modeling of model choice and confidence rating in separate bases. Levels of introspection and self-assessment during choice deliberations can be modeled by the introduction of a probability for measurement of either position and/or spin of the DTQW, where each measurement act leads to a partial decoherence (corresponding to a step towards rationalization) of the deliberation process. We show how quantum walks predict observed probabilistic misperception like S-shaped subjective probability and conjunction fallacy. Our framework emphasizes the close relationship between response times and type of preferences and of responses. In particular, decision theories based on DTQW do not need to invoke two systems (“fast” and “slow”) as in dual process theories. Within our DTQW framework, the two fast and slow systems are replaced by a single system, but with two types of self-assessment or introspection. The “thinking fast” regime is obtained with no or little self-assessment, while the “thinking slow” regime corresponds to a strong rate of self-assessment. We predict a trade-off between speed and accuracy, as empirically reported.
Publications 1 - 2 of 2