Annie Chang


Last Name

Chang

First Name

Annie

ORCID

0000-0002-8458-0668

Organisational unit

02240 - Center for Climate Systems Modeling / Center for Climate Systems Modeling

Filters

2024 - 20252
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Publications 1 - 2 of 2
  • Exploring hydrological system performance for alpine low flows in local and continental prediction systems
    Item type: Journal Article
    Chang, Annie; Ramos, Marie-Helena; Harrigan, Shaun; et al. (2024)
    Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
    Study region: The European alpine space. Study focus: Despite the advancements in hydrological modeling, there is a lack of comparative studies quantifying the performance differences between local and large-scale models, particularly in the context of drought and low flow assessment. This study addresses this gap by designing a framework to evaluate the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), a continental system, in simulating low flow events across 101 alpine stations from 1999–2018, with detailed comparisons to two local systems — GR6J in France and PREVAH in Switzerland — at 34 of these stations. New hydrological insights for the region: The results show that the local systems, PREVAH and GR6J, generally outperform the continental system EFAS for almost all stations. The performance gap between the systems increases as low flow conditions intensify, highlighting the importance of local systems for extreme low flow events. Despite EFAS not being specifically set up for low flows, it has shown an overall acceptable performance compared to the local hydrological systems, especially at locations that are not calibrated within the EFAS system, indicating its potential in ungauged areas. This study lays a foundation for understanding how a continental hydrological system like EFAS can complement local systems or fill the gap when a local system is unavailable to provide reliable predictions of low flow conditions.
  • Enhancing Research-to-Operations in Hydrological Forecasting: Innovations across Scales and Horizons
    Item type: Journal Article
    Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.; Du, Yiheng; Bennett, James; et al. (2025)
    Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    Over the past 20 years, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) international community of practice has advanced the science and practice of hydrological ensemble prediction and its application in impact- and risk-based decision-making, fostering innovations through cutting-edge techniques and data that enhance water-related sectors. Here, we present insights from those 20 years on the key priorities for (co)creating broadly applicable hydrological forecasting systems that add value across spatial scales and time horizons. We highlight the advancement of hydrological forecasting chains through rigorous data management that incorporates diverse, high-quality data sources, data assimilation techniques, and the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to improve predictive accuracy. HEPEX has played a critical role in enhancing the reliability of water resources and water-related risk management globally by standardizing ensemble forecasting. This effort complements HEPEX’s broader initiative to strengthen research to operations, making innovative forecasting solutions both practical and accessible. Additionally, efforts have been made toward supporting the United Nations Early Warnings for All initiative through developing robust and reliable early warning systems by means of global training, education and capacity development, and the sharing of technology. Finally, we note that the integration of advanced science, user-centric methods, and global collaboration can provide a solid framework for improving the prediction and management of hydrological extremes, aligning forecasting systems with the dynamic needs of water resource and risk management in a changing climate. To effectively meet future demands, it is crucial to accelerate the integration of innovative science within operational frameworks, fostering adaptable and resilient hydrological forecasting systems globally.
Publications 1 - 2 of 2