Cost-optimal pathways towards net-zero chemicals and plastics based on a circular carbon economy
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Date
2022-06
Publication Type
Journal Article
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yes
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Abstract
Without disruptive change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil production of chemicals and plastics will double by 2050. The transition to net-zero GHG emissions requires a concerted strategy for the whole chemical industry due to its integrated supply chains. A cost analysis is needed to determine the required investments and to design carbon-pricing incentives. Here, we present cost-optimal investment pathways for the global production of chemicals and plastics by using a bottom-up process model that captures the complexity of the chemical industry. To accomplish net-zero, capital expenditures need to increase by 36-51 % over the next 30 years. In contrast, the total annualized cost could be similar (+4 %) to fossil-based production. Net-zero production and its costs will rely on the availability of renewable electricity and biomass. At the same time, high recycling rates are a key to keeping resource demands low and reducing the sensitivity to high resource prices.
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Publication status
published
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Journal / series
Volume
162
Pages / Article No.
107798
Publisher
Elsevier
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Edition / version
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Date collected
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Subject
Circular Economy; Chemicals and plastics; Transition pathways; Net-zero greenhouse gas emissions; Techno-economic analysis; Carbon pricing
Organisational unit
09696 - Bardow, André / Bardow, André