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Does Export Concentration Cause Volatility?
(2011)KOF Working PapersThis paper investigates the causal influence of export concentration on measures of aggregate volatility. Geographically disadvantaged countries often have a concentrated export structure which makes them more vulnerable to external shocks. Identifying causal effects of export concentration on volatility faces severe problems of endogeneity, however. Based on a gravity approach, we suggest an inequality decomposition method which allows ...Working Paper -
International business cycles
(2011)KOF Working PapersThis paper first discusses concepts, definitions and theoretical explanations for international business cycles. This is followed by an overview of previous empirical studies. We then argue that for ex post analyses the output gap is a univariate quantification of the business cycle that is comparable across space and time and readily available (or rather computable from GFP series), which recommends its use for our purposes. Based on an ...Working Paper -
Nowcasting Private Consumption with TV Sentiment
(2011)KOF Working PapersWe perform principal components analyses of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and TV sentiment in order to gain information on their structure and information content. By introducing the new sentiment variable TV sentiment, gathered from sentiment from statements from over 10,000 TV news broadcasts in the United States, we nd that TV sentiment adds great value in nowcasting private consumption. We further nd that TV ...Working Paper -
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Gang scheduling istn't worth it ... yet
(2011)Technical reportThe hardware trend toward higher core counts will likely result in a dynamic, bursty and interactive mix of parallel applications in personal and server computing. We investigate whether gang scheduling can provide performance benefits for applications in this scenario. We present a systematic study of the conditions under which gang scheduling might be better than classical general-purpose OS scheduling, and derive a set of necessary ...Report -
Multilevel Monte Carlo method with applications to stocastic partial differential equations
(2011)SAM Research ReportIn this work the approximation of Hilbert-space-valued random variables is combined with the approximation of the expectation by a multilevel Monte Carlo method. The number of samples on the different levels of the multilevel approximation are chosen such that the errors are balanced. The overall work then decreases in the optimal case to $O(h^−$$^2)$ if $h$ is the error of the approximation. The multilevel Monte Carlo method is applied ...Report -