The Impact of Self-consumption Regulation on Individual and Community Solar PV Adoption in Switzerland: an Agent-Based Model

Abstract

Historically, Swiss solar PV adoption has been slow but Switzerland's Energy Strategy 2050 requires electricity production from renewables to increase 4.5 times by 2035 compared to 2017. The new Energy Act in Switzerland came into force in January 2018 with investment subsidies for practically all PV system sizes and very encouraging provisions for community solar PV systems – clearer financial and legal structures under the `Zusammenschluss zum Eigenverbrauch' (ZEV) or `Self-consumption Community' Regulations. This thesis looks at how individual and community PV adoption in Zurich will evolve until 2035 under the new regulations, especially with falling solar PV system prices. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour, a decision-making methodology for individual and community solar PV adoption by building owners in Zurich's Alt-Wiedikon district is developed and simulated with an Agent-based Model. The agent-based model uses hourly energy data generated from a model of nearly 2000 building blocks in Alt-Wiedikon using the City Energy Analyst (CEA), together with factors such as geographical location of agents, environmental attitudes and peer effects, electricity and solar PV prices as well as legal regulations. The results indicate that PV adoption targets for 2035 are exceeded even though adoptions cease in 2030 due to lack of subsidies. However, cheap wholesale electricity prices can deter PV adoption by large consumers. The ensuing policy implications of these developments are discussed to conclude this thesis.